Iceland

One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Vikingur Reykjavík the likeliest champion, at 100.0%.

Predicted final table

Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.

Predicted final table for Iceland
#	Club	Points	Title
1	Vikingur Reykjavík	65	100.0%
2	KR Reykjavík	52
3	Fram Reykjavík	50
4	Breiðablik UBK	37
5	ÍA Akranes	37
6	UMF Stjarnan	36
7	Valur Reykjavík	36
8	Keflavík ÍF	32
9	FH Hafnarfjördur	32
10	KA Akureyri	27
11	Thór Akureyri	24
12	ÍB Vestmannaeyjar	22

Where each club finishes

Probability of each finishing position, Iceland
Club	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Vikingur Reykjavík	100
KR Reykjavík		74	26
Fram Reykjavík		26	74
Breiðablik UBK				46	27	17	8	2
ÍA Akranes				19	26	34	17	4
UMF Stjarnan				19	21	21	27	10	2
Valur Reykjavík				15	23	22	27	10	3
Keflavík ÍF				1	2	3	9	33	51	2
FH Hafnarfjördur					2	4	13	40	38	4
KA Akureyri								1	5	75	17	2
Thór Akureyri									1	11	55	34
ÍB Vestmannaeyjar										7	28	64

Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.

Fixtures

Upcoming fixtures in Iceland with win, draw and loss probabilities
Date	Home	Away	Home win	Draw	Away win
Sat 10 Oct	Fram Reykjavík	KR Reykjavík	40%	25%	35%
Sat 10 Oct	Thór Akureyri	ÍB Vestmannaeyjar	40%	25%	35%
Sat 10 Oct	UMF Stjarnan	KA Akureyri	50%	24%	26%
Sat 10 Oct	Valur Reykjavík	FH Hafnarfjördur	49%	24%	27%
Sun 11 Oct	Breiðablik UBK	Keflavík ÍF	63%	21%	16%
Sun 11 Oct	Vikingur Reykjavík	ÍA Akranes	70%	19%	11%