Andorra
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes FC Santa Coloma the likeliest champion, at 53.6%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Club d'Esacaldes | 63 | 45.4% |
| 2 | FC Santa Coloma | 63 | 53.6% |
| 3 | Atletic Escaldes | 49 | 1.0% |
| 4 | FC Rangers | 42 | |
| 5 | Casa de Portugal | 35 | |
| 6 | FC Ordino | 35 | |
| 7 | Esperanca | 29 | |
| 8 | Penya Encarnada d'Andorra | 28 | |
| 9 | Sporting Escaldes | 20 | |
| 10 | Carroi | 16 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Club d'Esacaldes | 45 | 52 | 3 | |||||||
| FC Santa Coloma | 54 | 42 | 4 | |||||||
| Atletic Escaldes | 1 | 6 | 72 | 17 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| FC Rangers | 18 | 56 | 18 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Casa de Portugal | 1 | 12 | 33 | 26 | 18 | 9 | 1 | |||
| FC Ordino | 2 | 11 | 28 | 30 | 18 | 9 | 2 | |||
| Esperanca | 2 | 11 | 20 | 30 | 26 | 9 | 2 | |||
| Penya Encarnada d'Andorra | 2 | 7 | 14 | 27 | 35 | 12 | 2 | |||
| Sporting Escaldes | 2 | 5 | 14 | 51 | 29 | |||||
| Carroi | 1 | 6 | 25 | 66 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7 Nov | Casa de Portugal | Esperanca | 62% | 18% | 20% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Sporting Escaldes | Inter Club d'Esacaldes | 7% | 12% | 82% |
| Sun 8 Nov | FC Santa Coloma | FC Ordino | 79% | 13% | 8% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Penya Encarnada d'Andorra | FC Rangers | 27% | 19% | 54% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Carroi | Atletic Escaldes | 13% | 16% | 71% |