Andorra
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Inter Club d'Esacaldes the likeliest champion, at 53.1%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Club d'Esacaldes | 62 | 53.1% |
| 2 | FC Santa Coloma | 61 | 44.2% |
| 3 | Atletic Escaldes | 49 | 1.9% |
| 4 | FC Rangers | 46 | 0.8% |
| 5 | Casa de Portugal | 32 | |
| 6 | FC Ordino | 31 | |
| 7 | Penya Encarnada d'Andorra | 30 | |
| 8 | Esperanca | 26 | |
| 9 | Carroi | 21 | |
| 10 | Sporting Escaldes | 19 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Club d'Esacaldes | 53 | 41 | 6 | |||||||
| FC Santa Coloma | 44 | 47 | 8 | 1 | ||||||
| Atletic Escaldes | 2 | 10 | 56 | 28 | 3 | |||||
| FC Rangers | 1 | 2 | 29 | 58 | 8 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Casa de Portugal | 1 | 5 | 28 | 28 | 21 | 12 | 4 | 2 | ||
| FC Ordino | 1 | 4 | 27 | 26 | 22 | 14 | 6 | 1 | ||
| Penya Encarnada d'Andorra | 2 | 24 | 24 | 20 | 19 | 8 | 2 | |||
| Esperanca | 1 | 8 | 15 | 25 | 28 | 16 | 8 | |||
| Carroi | 1 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 37 | ||||
| Sporting Escaldes | 2 | 4 | 12 | 32 | 51 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 17 Oct | FC Rangers | FC Ordino | 67% | 19% | 15% |
| Sun 18 Oct | Carroi | Sporting Escaldes | 49% | 23% | 29% |
| Sun 18 Oct | Casa de Portugal | Penya Encarnada d'Andorra | 53% | 22% | 25% |
| Sun 18 Oct | Inter Club d'Esacaldes | Atletic Escaldes | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| Sun 18 Oct | Esperanca | FC Santa Coloma | 9% | 16% | 75% |