Austria
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes SK Rapid the likeliest champion, at 54.2%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SK Rapid | 48 | 54.2% |
| 2 | RB Salzburg | 47 | 37.4% |
| 3 | LASK | 41 | 6.5% |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 39 | 1.9% |
| 5 | TSV Hartberg | 32 | |
| 6 | SV Ried | 30 | |
| 7 | WSG Tirol | 25 | |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 23 | |
| 9 | Austria Wien | 23 | |
| 10 | SCR Altach | 22 | |
| 11 | Austria Lustenau | 19 | |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 19 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Rapid | 54 | 33 | 11 | 2 | ||||||||
| RB Salzburg | 37 | 45 | 13 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
| LASK | 7 | 14 | 45 | 28 | 4 | 1 | ||||||
| Sturm Graz | 2 | 7 | 27 | 49 | 13 | 3 | 1 | |||||
| TSV Hartberg | 1 | 3 | 10 | 44 | 26 | 11 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| SV Ried | 1 | 6 | 29 | 37 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||
| WSG Tirol | 1 | 3 | 12 | 28 | 22 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 3 | |||
| Grazer AK | 2 | 6 | 13 | 18 | 20 | 17 | 14 | 10 | ||||
| Austria Wien | 3 | 8 | 13 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 14 | 6 | ||||
| SCR Altach | 2 | 4 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 11 | ||||
| Austria Lustenau | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 24 | 40 | |||||
| Wolfsberger AC | 1 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 21 | 24 | 30 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | SK Rapid | Wolfsberger AC | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Sat 7 Nov | SV Ried | LASK | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Austria Lustenau | Grazer AK | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Sun 8 Nov | TSV Hartberg | SCR Altach | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Sturm Graz | RB Salzburg | 46% | 26% | 27% |
| Sun 8 Nov | WSG Tirol | Austria Wien | 38% | 27% | 35% |