Austria
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes SK Rapid the likeliest champion, at 45.3%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SK Rapid | 43 | 45.3% |
| 2 | RB Salzburg | 42 | 32.0% |
| 3 | LASK | 39 | 11.0% |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 39 | 11.1% |
| 5 | TSV Hartberg | 30 | 0.4% |
| 6 | SV Ried | 28 | 0.1% |
| 7 | Austria Wien | 28 | |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 26 | 0.1% |
| 9 | WSG Tirol | 24 | |
| 10 | Wolfsberger AC | 23 | |
| 11 | Austria Lustenau | 22 | |
| 12 | SCR Altach | 22 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK Rapid | 45 | 28 | 15 | 9 | 2 | |||||||
| RB Salzburg | 32 | 32 | 22 | 10 | 3 | |||||||
| LASK | 11 | 21 | 29 | 26 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||||
| Sturm Graz | 11 | 17 | 27 | 29 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| TSV Hartberg | 2 | 4 | 9 | 26 | 18 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| SV Ried | 1 | 6 | 15 | 21 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| Austria Wien | 1 | 5 | 16 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | ||
| Grazer AK | 2 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 13 | 10 | 9 | |||
| WSG Tirol | 2 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 13 | |||
| Wolfsberger AC | 4 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 20 | 21 | ||||
| Austria Lustenau | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 19 | 20 | 24 | |||
| SCR Altach | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 23 | 27 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 16 Oct | SK Rapid | TSV Hartberg | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Sat 17 Oct | Austria Lustenau | LASK | 27% | 26% | 48% |
| Sat 17 Oct | SV Ried | Austria Wien | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Sun 18 Oct | RB Salzburg | SCR Altach | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| Sun 18 Oct | Sturm Graz | Grazer AK | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Sun 18 Oct | Wolfsberger AC | WSG Tirol | 51% | 25% | 24% |