Belarus
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Dinamo Minsk the likeliest champion, at 62.5%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Minsk | 61 | 62.5% |
| 2 | FK Isloch Minsk | 58 | 19.2% |
| 3 | ML Vitebsk | 57 | 17.4% |
| 4 | Dynamo Brest | 51 | 0.3% |
| 5 | FK Neman Grodno | 50 | 0.3% |
| 6 | Gomel | 49 | 0.3% |
| 7 | FK Wizebsk | 45 | |
| 8 | FC Minsk | 43 | |
| 9 | Torpedo Zodino | 40 | |
| 10 | Baranovici | 34 | |
| 11 | Slavia Mozyr | 34 | |
| 12 | BATE Borissow | 32 | |
| 13 | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 31 | |
| 14 | FC Belshina Bobruisk | 29 | |
| 15 | Dnepr Mogilev | 21 | |
| 16 | Naftan | 20 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Minsk | 63 | 27 | 9 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||
| FK Isloch Minsk | 19 | 39 | 33 | 7 | 1 | |||||||||||
| ML Vitebsk | 17 | 31 | 35 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| Dynamo Brest | 1 | 10 | 31 | 30 | 18 | 8 | 2 | |||||||||
| FK Neman Grodno | 1 | 7 | 24 | 26 | 26 | 12 | 4 | |||||||||
| Gomel | 1 | 5 | 22 | 27 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 1 | ||||||||
| FK Wizebsk | 1 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 39 | 22 | 7 | 1 | ||||||||
| FC Minsk | 1 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 44 | 22 | 2 | |||||||||
| Torpedo Zodino | 2 | 6 | 21 | 51 | 12 | 5 | 2 | |||||||||
| Baranovici | 2 | 6 | 26 | 28 | 21 | 12 | 5 | |||||||||
| Slavia Mozyr | 2 | 8 | 34 | 24 | 18 | 9 | 4 | |||||||||
| BATE Borissow | 2 | 14 | 23 | 23 | 20 | 16 | 2 | |||||||||
| Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 1 | 7 | 12 | 20 | 33 | 24 | 3 | |||||||||
| FC Belshina Bobruisk | 1 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 25 | 42 | 6 | |||||||||
| Dnepr Mogilev | 1 | 7 | 56 | 36 | ||||||||||||
| Naftan | 1 | 3 | 33 | 64 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9 Oct | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | Dynamo Brest | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Sat 10 Oct | Naftan | FC Belshina Bobruisk | 39% | 28% | 34% |
| Sat 10 Oct | FC Minsk | Torpedo Zodino | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Sat 10 Oct | FK Neman Grodno | Baranovici | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Sat 10 Oct | BATE Borissow | Slavia Mozyr | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Sun 11 Oct | Gomel | ML Vitebsk | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Sun 11 Oct | Dnepr Mogilev | Dinamo Minsk | 11% | 21% | 68% |
| Sun 11 Oct | FK Wizebsk | FK Isloch Minsk | 31% | 28% | 41% |