Belarus

One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes FK Isloch Minsk the likeliest champion, at 52.7%.

Predicted final table

Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.

Predicted final table for Belarus
#	Club	Points	Title
1	FK Isloch Minsk	66	52.7%
2	ML Vitebsk	64	29.3%
3	Dinamo Minsk	64	18.0%
4	Dynamo Brest	58
5	FK Neman Grodno	53
6	Gomel	45
7	FK Wizebsk	44
8	FC Minsk	41
9	Torpedo Zodino	40
10	Baranovici	39
11	Slavia Mozyr	35
12	Arsenal Dzerzhinsk	30
13	FC Belshina Bobruisk	28
14	Dnepr Mogilev	25
15	BATE Borissow	25
16	Naftan	19

Where each club finishes

Probability of each finishing position, Belarus
Club	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
FK Isloch Minsk	53	31	16
ML Vitebsk	29	34	35	2
Dinamo Minsk	18	35	45	2
Dynamo Brest			4	94	3
FK Neman Grodno				3	94	4
Gomel					3	63	28	5	1
FK Wizebsk						30	54	13	3
FC Minsk						2	10	33	40	16
Torpedo Zodino						2	6	34	33	23	2
Baranovici							2	14	22	47	15
Slavia Mozyr									2	15	79	4
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk											4	68	20	7	1
FC Belshina Bobruisk												18	45	26	10
Dnepr Mogilev												5	16	31	48
BATE Borissow												6	19	35	39	2
Naftan															2	98

Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.

Fixtures

Upcoming fixtures in Belarus with win, draw and loss probabilities
Date	Home	Away	Home win	Draw	Away win
Fri 6 Nov	Gomel	Arsenal Dzerzhinsk	52%	24%	23%
Sat 7 Nov	Naftan	ML Vitebsk	24%	24%	51%
Sat 7 Nov	FK Wizebsk	Dinamo Minsk	21%	24%	55%
Sat 7 Nov	BATE Borissow	Torpedo Zodino	41%	26%	33%
Sat 7 Nov	FC Belshina Bobruisk	FK Isloch Minsk	21%	24%	56%
Sun 8 Nov	FK Neman Grodno	Dnepr Mogilev	67%	20%	13%
Sun 8 Nov	FC Minsk	Dynamo Brest	33%	25%	42%
Sun 8 Nov	Slavia Mozyr	Baranovici	42%	25%	32%