Belgium
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes FC Brügge the likeliest champion, at 63.1%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Brügge | 83 | 63.1% |
| 2 | Union Saint-Gilloise | 80 | 36.1% |
| 3 | KAA Gent | 67 | 0.7% |
| 4 | RSC Charleroi | 62 | 0.1% |
| 5 | RSC Anderlecht | 59 | |
| 6 | KRC Genk | 58 | |
| 7 | KVC Westerlo | 46 | |
| 8 | KV Mechelen | 45 | |
| 9 | VV St. Truiden | 45 | |
| 10 | Royal Antwerpen | 44 | |
| 11 | Standard Lüttich | 43 | |
| 12 | Lommel SK | 42 | |
| 13 | SV Zulte Waregem | 41 | |
| 14 | Cercle Brügge | 38 | |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 38 | |
| 16 | RAAL La Louviere | 32 | |
| 17 | Beveren | 30 | |
| 18 | KV Kortrijk | 28 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Brügge | 63 | 34 | 3 | |||||||||||||||
| Union Saint-Gilloise | 36 | 56 | 7 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| KAA Gent | 1 | 7 | 53 | 22 | 11 | 5 | 1 | |||||||||||
| RSC Charleroi | 2 | 21 | 32 | 22 | 15 | 5 | 2 | |||||||||||
| RSC Anderlecht | 1 | 9 | 24 | 28 | 23 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| KRC Genk | 7 | 19 | 28 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| KVC Westerlo | 1 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| KV Mechelen | 2 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| VV St. Truiden | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Royal Antwerpen | 2 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||||
| Standard Lüttich | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Lommel SK | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| SV Zulte Waregem | 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||||
| Cercle Brügge | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 5 | |||||
| OH Leuven | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 3 | |||||
| RAAL La Louviere | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 19 | 26 | 19 | ||||||||
| Beveren | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 25 | 27 | ||||||||
| KV Kortrijk | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 24 | 42 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov | KV Kortrijk | KV Mechelen | 30% | 24% | 46% |
| Fri 6 Nov | Standard Lüttich | Beveren | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Royal Antwerpen | Lommel SK | 51% | 23% | 25% |
| Sat 7 Nov | RAAL La Louviere | Cercle Brügge | 34% | 24% | 42% |
| Sat 7 Nov | OH Leuven | KV Mechelen | 36% | 24% | 40% |
| Sat 7 Nov | KVC Westerlo | RSC Charleroi | 36% | 24% | 39% |
| Sun 8 Nov | KAA Gent | KV Kortrijk | 67% | 20% | 14% |
| Sun 8 Nov | VV St. Truiden | SV Zulte Waregem | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Union Saint-Gilloise | KRC Genk | 60% | 22% | 19% |
| Sun 8 Nov | FC Brügge | RSC Anderlecht | 66% | 20% | 14% |