Bosnia Herzegovina
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Borac Banja Luka the likeliest champion, at 58.1%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borac Banja Luka | 83 | 58.1% |
| 2 | Zrinjski Mostar | 81 | 41.8% |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 61 | 0.1% |
| 4 | Željezničar Sarajevo | 48 | |
| 5 | NK Široki Brijeg | 43 | |
| 6 | Velež Mostar | 43 | |
| 7 | Sloga Doboj | 36 | |
| 8 | Čelik Zenica | 35 | |
| 9 | Radnik Bijeljina | 33 | |
| 10 | BSK Banja Luka | 30 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borac Banja Luka | 58 | 41 | 1 | |||||||
| Zrinjski Mostar | 42 | 57 | 1 | |||||||
| FK Sarajevo | 1 | 91 | 7 | 1 | ||||||
| Željezničar Sarajevo | 6 | 50 | 25 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| NK Široki Brijeg | 1 | 20 | 26 | 25 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| Velež Mostar | 2 | 18 | 30 | 22 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| Sloga Doboj | 2 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 24 | 19 | 12 | |||
| Čelik Zenica | 2 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 25 | 21 | 13 | |||
| Radnik Bijeljina | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 19 | 25 | 27 | |||
| BSK Banja Luka | 2 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 27 | 46 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 17 Oct | Čelik Zenica | Zrinjski Mostar | 11% | 25% | 64% |
| Sat 17 Oct | Sloga Doboj | NK Široki Brijeg | 39% | 31% | 30% |
| Sat 17 Oct | Radnik Bijeljina | FK Sarajevo | 19% | 29% | 52% |
| Sat 17 Oct | BSK Banja Luka | Željezničar Sarajevo | 27% | 31% | 42% |
| Sat 17 Oct | Velež Mostar | Borac Banja Luka | 14% | 27% | 59% |