Bosnia Herzegovina
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Zrinjski Mostar the likeliest champion, at 62.9%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski Mostar | 87 | 62.9% |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 85 | 37.1% |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 63 | |
| 4 | Željezničar Sarajevo | 48 | |
| 5 | NK Široki Brijeg | 44 | |
| 6 | Velež Mostar | 44 | |
| 7 | Radnik Bijeljina | 38 | |
| 8 | Čelik Zenica | 37 | |
| 9 | BSK Banja Luka | 36 | |
| 10 | Sloga Doboj | 34 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zrinjski Mostar | 63 | 37 | ||||||||
| Borac Banja Luka | 37 | 63 | ||||||||
| FK Sarajevo | 1 | 93 | 5 | 1 | ||||||
| Željezničar Sarajevo | 4 | 44 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| NK Široki Brijeg | 1 | 20 | 26 | 23 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| Velež Mostar | 1 | 21 | 24 | 20 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| Radnik Bijeljina | 4 | 10 | 14 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 14 | |||
| Čelik Zenica | 3 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 21 | 20 | 20 | |||
| BSK Banja Luka | 3 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 20 | 25 | 21 | |||
| Sloga Doboj | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 24 | 41 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7 Nov | Zrinjski Mostar | FK Sarajevo | 61% | 27% | 13% |
| Sat 7 Nov | NK Široki Brijeg | Željezničar Sarajevo | 42% | 32% | 26% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Velež Mostar | Čelik Zenica | 58% | 28% | 15% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Borac Banja Luka | Radnik Bijeljina | 84% | 14% | 3% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Sloga Doboj | BSK Banja Luka | 47% | 31% | 22% |