Bulgaria

One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Levski Sofia the likeliest champion, at 74.9%.

Predicted final table

Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.

Predicted final table for Bulgaria
#	Club	Points	Title
1	Levski Sofia	63	74.9%
2	Ludogorez Rasgrad	57	15.6%
3	ZSKA Sofia	56	9.3%
4	CSKA 1948 Sofia	49	0.2%
5	Arda Kardschali	41
6	Botev Plovdiv	40
7	Cherno More Varna	31
8	Slavia Sofia	28
9	Lokomotive Plovdiv	25
10	Spartak Varna	25
11	Botev Vratsa	24
12	Lok. Sofia	23
13	FK Dunav Ruse	22
14	Septemvri Sofia	18

Where each club finishes

Probability of each finishing position, Bulgaria
Club	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Levski Sofia	75	18	6	1
Ludogorez Rasgrad	16	44	31	9
ZSKA Sofia	9	33	47	10	1
CSKA 1948 Sofia		5	15	66	12	2
Arda Kardschali			1	9	45	39	6
Botev Plovdiv			1	5	39	46	8	1
Cherno More Varna					2	8	45	21	13	5	4	2	1
Slavia Sofia					1	4	22	28	18	11	9	5	2	1
Lokomotive Plovdiv						1	6	15	19	16	17	13	9	5
Spartak Varna						1	6	12	15	16	16	16	12	6
Botev Vratsa							4	9	13	17	17	17	16	8
Lok. Sofia							2	7	12	18	18	17	17	10
FK Dunav Ruse							1	6	8	14	14	20	23	15
Septemvri Sofia								1	2	4	6	10	21	56

Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.

Fixtures

Upcoming fixtures in Bulgaria with win, draw and loss probabilities
Date	Home	Away	Home win	Draw	Away win
Fri 6 Nov	Botev Plovdiv	FK Dunav Ruse	64%	24%	13%
Fri 6 Nov	Septemvri Sofia	Lok. Sofia	32%	29%	39%
Sat 7 Nov	Slavia Sofia	Cherno More Varna	29%	29%	42%
Sat 7 Nov	Ludogorez Rasgrad	CSKA 1948 Sofia	58%	25%	16%
Sat 7 Nov	Botev Vratsa	Lokomotive Plovdiv	36%	29%	35%
Sun 8 Nov	Levski Sofia	ZSKA Sofia	56%	26%	18%
Sun 8 Nov	Spartak Varna	Arda Kardschali	18%	26%	56%