Croatia
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Hajduk Split the likeliest champion, at 57.2%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hajduk Split | 76 | 57.2% |
| 2 | Dinamo Zagreb | 75 | 41.9% |
| 3 | HNK Rijeka | 61 | 0.7% |
| 4 | Varaždin | 56 | 0.1% |
| 5 | NK Osijek | 51 | 0.1% |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 48 | |
| 7 | Lok. Zagreb | 43 | |
| 8 | Slaven Belupo | 43 | |
| 9 | HNK Gorica | 33 | |
| 10 | Rudes | 29 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hajduk Split | 57 | 38 | 5 | 1 | ||||||
| Dinamo Zagreb | 42 | 53 | 5 | 1 | ||||||
| HNK Rijeka | 1 | 8 | 54 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Varaždin | 2 | 24 | 39 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| NK Osijek | 9 | 21 | 30 | 23 | 13 | 4 | 1 | |||
| Istra 1961 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 31 | 18 | 10 | 2 | |||
| Lok. Zagreb | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 30 | 32 | 10 | 2 | ||
| Slaven Belupo | 1 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 28 | 33 | 12 | 2 | ||
| HNK Gorica | 2 | 5 | 15 | 47 | 31 | |||||
| Rudes | 2 | 6 | 28 | 65 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | Lok. Zagreb | Rudes | 69% | 20% | 11% |
| Sat 7 Nov | HNK Gorica | Slaven Belupo | 45% | 27% | 29% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Istra 1961 | HNK Rijeka | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Sun 8 Nov | NK Osijek | Hajduk Split | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Varaždin | Dinamo Zagreb | 27% | 26% | 46% |