Czech Republic
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Slavia Prag the likeliest champion, at 89.4%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Prag | 67 | 89.4% |
| 2 | Sparta Prag | 57 | 7.5% |
| 3 | Slovan Liberec | 52 | 2.0% |
| 4 | Viktoria Pilsen | 49 | 0.3% |
| 5 | Sigma Olmütz | 47 | 0.2% |
| 6 | FK Mladá Boleslav | 46 | 0.2% |
| 7 | FK Jablonec | 46 | 0.1% |
| 8 | FK Teplice | 45 | 0.2% |
| 9 | FC Hradec Králové | 45 | 0.1% |
| 10 | 1. FC Brünn | 39 | |
| 11 | Bohemians Prag | 36 | |
| 12 | Baník Ostrau | 36 | |
| 13 | FK Pardubice | 32 | |
| 14 | 1. FC Slovácko | 26 | |
| 15 | Artis Brno | 25 | |
| 16 | Zlin | 20 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Prag | 89 | 9 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Sparta Prag | 8 | 48 | 22 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Slovan Liberec | 2 | 18 | 23 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | ||||||
| Viktoria Pilsen | 8 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Sigma Olmütz | 4 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| FK Mladá Boleslav | 4 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| FK Jablonec | 4 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| FK Teplice | 2 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| FC Hradec Králové | 3 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 1. FC Brünn | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 20 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Bohemians Prag | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 18 | 22 | 13 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| Baník Ostrau | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 14 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| FK Pardubice | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 19 | 26 | 19 | 8 | 3 | |||||
| 1. FC Slovácko | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 28 | 26 | 15 | ||||||||
| Artis Brno | 1 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 23 | 34 | 22 | |||||||||
| Zlin | 2 | 4 | 12 | 24 | 59 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9 Oct | Zlin | Slavia Prag | 11% | 17% | 73% |
| Sat 10 Oct | Viktoria Pilsen | FK Mladá Boleslav | 61% | 20% | 18% |
| Sat 10 Oct | 1. FC Brünn | FK Jablonec | 27% | 22% | 50% |
| Sat 10 Oct | Bohemians Prag | Baník Ostrau | 42% | 23% | 35% |
| Sat 10 Oct | FC Hradec Králové | Artis Brno | 62% | 20% | 18% |
| Sun 11 Oct | Slovan Liberec | 1. FC Slovácko | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| Sun 11 Oct | Sparta Prag | FK Pardubice | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| Sun 11 Oct | FK Teplice | Sigma Olmütz | 40% | 23% | 37% |