Czech Republic
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Slavia Prag the likeliest champion, at 85.0%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Prag | 69 | 85.0% |
| 2 | Sparta Prag | 60 | 11.6% |
| 3 | Slovan Liberec | 53 | 1.0% |
| 4 | Sigma Olmütz | 53 | 1.3% |
| 5 | Viktoria Pilsen | 52 | 0.4% |
| 6 | FK Jablonec | 50 | 0.2% |
| 7 | FK Mladá Boleslav | 49 | 0.3% |
| 8 | FK Teplice | 47 | 0.2% |
| 9 | Bohemians Prag | 43 | |
| 10 | FC Hradec Králové | 43 | |
| 11 | 1. FC Brünn | 40 | |
| 12 | Baník Ostrau | 36 | |
| 13 | FK Pardubice | 35 | |
| 14 | Artis Brno | 30 | |
| 15 | 1. FC Slovácko | 27 | |
| 16 | Zlin | 21 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia Prag | 85 | 11 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Sparta Prag | 12 | 54 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| Slovan Liberec | 1 | 10 | 19 | 15 | 17 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Sigma Olmütz | 1 | 9 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Viktoria Pilsen | 8 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| FK Jablonec | 4 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||||
| FK Mladá Boleslav | 3 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||||
| FK Teplice | 1 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Bohemians Prag | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| FC Hradec Králové | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 1. FC Brünn | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 19 | 19 | 15 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| Baník Ostrau | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 23 | 15 | 7 | 2 | |||||
| FK Pardubice | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 24 | 25 | 15 | 6 | 1 | ||||||
| Artis Brno | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 33 | 25 | 6 | ||||||||
| 1. FC Slovácko | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 41 | 19 | |||||||||
| Zlin | 1 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 73 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov | Artis Brno | Bohemians Prag | 33% | 22% | 45% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Zlin | 1. FC Slovácko | 39% | 22% | 39% |
| Sat 7 Nov | FC Hradec Králové | Sigma Olmütz | 42% | 22% | 35% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Slovan Liberec | Bohemians Prag | 50% | 22% | 29% |
| Sat 7 Nov | 1. FC Brünn | Baník Ostrau | 37% | 22% | 41% |
| Sun 8 Nov | FK Jablonec | FK Mladá Boleslav | 51% | 21% | 28% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Viktoria Pilsen | Sparta Prag | 39% | 22% | 38% |
| Sun 8 Nov | FK Teplice | FK Pardubice | 50% | 22% | 29% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Slavia Prag | Artis Brno | 77% | 15% | 9% |