Denmark
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes FC Midtjylland the likeliest champion, at 67.0%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Midtjylland | 48 | 67.0% |
| 2 | FC Kopenhagen | 45 | 31.8% |
| 3 | FC Nordsjælland | 35 | 0.3% |
| 4 | Brøndby IF | 35 | 0.4% |
| 5 | Viborg FF | 35 | 0.5% |
| 6 | Odense BK | 29 | |
| 7 | Aarhus GF | 26 | |
| 8 | AC Horsens | 25 | |
| 9 | Silkeborg IF | 23 | |
| 10 | Randers FC | 21 | |
| 11 | Lyngby BK | 20 | |
| 12 | Sønderjyske | 18 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | 67 | 32 | 2 | |||||||||
| FC Kopenhagen | 32 | 60 | 7 | 1 | ||||||||
| FC Nordsjælland | 2 | 26 | 30 | 28 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||||
| Brøndby IF | 3 | 27 | 30 | 28 | 9 | 2 | ||||||
| Viborg FF | 1 | 4 | 35 | 32 | 21 | 7 | 1 | |||||
| Odense BK | 2 | 5 | 13 | 35 | 22 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Aarhus GF | 1 | 4 | 18 | 25 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| AC Horsens | 1 | 4 | 13 | 23 | 22 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 2 | |||
| Silkeborg IF | 1 | 5 | 13 | 21 | 23 | 17 | 14 | 5 | ||||
| Randers FC | 3 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 27 | 22 | 15 | |||||
| Lyngby BK | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 23 | 29 | 23 | |||||
| Sønderjyske | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 24 | 53 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | Silkeborg IF | Lyngby BK | 49% | 28% | 24% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Odense BK | Viborg FF | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Randers FC | FC Nordsjælland | 29% | 29% | 43% |
| Sun 8 Nov | FC Midtjylland | Sønderjyske | 67% | 22% | 11% |
| Sun 8 Nov | FC Kopenhagen | Brøndby IF | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Aarhus GF | AC Horsens | 57% | 26% | 17% |