Denmark
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes FC Kopenhagen the likeliest champion, at 55.9%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Kopenhagen | 46 | 55.9% |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | 45 | 38.9% |
| 3 | FC Nordsjælland | 37 | 3.0% |
| 4 | Viborg FF | 37 | 2.0% |
| 5 | Brøndby IF | 33 | 0.2% |
| 6 | Silkeborg IF | 26 | |
| 7 | Aarhus GF | 26 | |
| 8 | AC Horsens | 24 | |
| 9 | Odense BK | 24 | |
| 10 | Randers FC | 24 | |
| 11 | Sønderjyske | 19 | |
| 12 | Lyngby BK | 19 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Kopenhagen | 56 | 35 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| FC Midtjylland | 39 | 43 | 13 | 4 | 1 | |||||||
| FC Nordsjælland | 3 | 10 | 34 | 30 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Viborg FF | 2 | 10 | 32 | 31 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Brøndby IF | 3 | 12 | 24 | 37 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| Silkeborg IF | 3 | 9 | 21 | 19 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 4 | 3 | |||
| Aarhus GF | 1 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 17 | 13 | 12 | 6 | 4 | ||
| AC Horsens | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 11 | 5 | |||
| Odense BK | 1 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 18 | 19 | 16 | 11 | 5 | |||
| Randers FC | 1 | 3 | 12 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 19 | 10 | 6 | |||
| Sønderjyske | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 25 | 41 | |||||
| Lyngby BK | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 37 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 16 Oct | AC Horsens | Randers FC | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Sun 18 Oct | Lyngby BK | FC Nordsjælland | 22% | 26% | 52% |
| Sun 18 Oct | Sønderjyske | Silkeborg IF | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Sun 18 Oct | Odense BK | Brøndby IF | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Sun 18 Oct | FC Kopenhagen | Aarhus GF | 51% | 27% | 23% |
| Mon 19 Oct | Viborg FF | FC Midtjylland | 26% | 27% | 47% |