Denmark
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes FC Kopenhagen the likeliest champion, at 49.7%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Midtjylland | 45 | 38.3% |
| 2 | FC Kopenhagen | 45 | 49.7% |
| 3 | FC Nordsjælland | 41 | 10.2% |
| 4 | Brøndby IF | 34 | 1.4% |
| 5 | Viborg FF | 33 | 0.3% |
| 6 | Randers FC | 28 | 0.1% |
| 7 | Silkeborg IF | 25 | |
| 8 | Aarhus GF | 25 | |
| 9 | AC Horsens | 24 | |
| 10 | Odense BK | 24 | |
| 11 | Lyngby BK | 20 | |
| 12 | Sønderjyske | 18 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | 38 | 38 | 18 | 5 | 1 | |||||||
| FC Kopenhagen | 50 | 32 | 14 | 4 | ||||||||
| FC Nordsjælland | 10 | 24 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 1 | ||||||
| Brøndby IF | 1 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 24 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 3 | |||
| Viborg FF | 2 | 10 | 27 | 29 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Randers FC | 2 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| Silkeborg IF | 3 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 20 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 6 | |||
| Aarhus GF | 3 | 7 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 5 | |||
| AC Horsens | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 18 | 14 | 5 | |||
| Odense BK | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 7 | |||
| Lyngby BK | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 17 | 26 | 23 | |||
| Sønderjyske | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 22 | 52 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 20 Sept | Viborg FF | FC Nordsjælland | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Sun 20 Sept | AC Horsens | Aarhus GF | 25% | 27% | 49% |
| Sun 20 Sept | Brøndby IF | FC Kopenhagen | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Sun 20 Sept | Sønderjyske | Randers FC | 38% | 28% | 34% |