England
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes FC Arsenal the likeliest champion, at 91.2%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Arsenal | 88 | 91.2% |
| 2 | Manchester City | 73 | 6.6% |
| 3 | FC Liverpool | 68 | 1.5% |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 64 | 0.1% |
| 5 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 63 | 0.3% |
| 6 | FC Chelsea | 61 | 0.3% |
| 7 | AFC Bournemouth | 56 | |
| 8 | Tottenham Hotspur | 53 | |
| 9 | FC Brentford | 53 | |
| 10 | FC Everton | 51 | |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 51 | |
| 12 | Manchester United | 47 | |
| 13 | Leeds United | 47 | |
| 14 | FC Fulham | 45 | |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 44 | |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 44 | |
| 17 | Ipswich Town | 38 | |
| 18 | Hull City | 37 | |
| 19 | AFC Sunderland | 37 | |
| 20 | Coventry City | 34 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arsenal | 91 | 7 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Manchester City | 7 | 50 | 24 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| FC Liverpool | 2 | 20 | 28 | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| Aston Villa | 10 | 13 | 22 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 8 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| FC Chelsea | 4 | 11 | 13 | 18 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| FC Brentford | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| FC Everton | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Newcastle United | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Manchester United | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Leeds United | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| FC Fulham | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 5 | ||||
| Nottingham Forest | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 15 | ||||||||
| Hull City | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 18 | 19 | 17 | |||||||
| AFC Sunderland | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 20 | 21 | |||||||||
| Coventry City | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 24 | 36 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | FC Everton | Coventry City | 56% | 28% | 16% |
| Sat 7 Nov | FC Arsenal | Hull City | 78% | 18% | 5% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Leeds United | Tottenham Hotspur | 32% | 31% | 36% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Nottingham Forest | Manchester City | 23% | 30% | 47% |
| Sat 7 Nov | FC Fulham | Newcastle United | 33% | 31% | 36% |
| Sun 8 Nov | AFC Sunderland | FC Chelsea | 25% | 31% | 44% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Ipswich Town | AFC Bournemouth | 21% | 29% | 50% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Manchester United | Aston Villa | 28% | 31% | 41% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Crystal Palace | FC Liverpool | 22% | 30% | 48% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Brighton & Hove Albion | FC Brentford | 42% | 31% | 27% |