England
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes FC Arsenal the likeliest champion, at 68.5%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Arsenal | 81 | 68.5% |
| 2 | Manchester City | 76 | 28.9% |
| 3 | FC Liverpool | 63 | 1.4% |
| 4 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 58 | 0.3% |
| 5 | FC Chelsea | 57 | 0.3% |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 57 | 0.4% |
| 7 | Newcastle United | 53 | 0.1% |
| 8 | Manchester United | 53 | 0.1% |
| 9 | FC Brentford | 53 | |
| 10 | FC Everton | 50 | |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 48 | |
| 12 | Leeds United | 48 | |
| 13 | AFC Bournemouth | 47 | |
| 14 | Nottingham Forest | 47 | |
| 15 | Tottenham Hotspur | 46 | |
| 16 | FC Fulham | 41 | |
| 17 | AFC Sunderland | 40 | |
| 18 | Ipswich Town | 39 | |
| 19 | Hull City | 38 | |
| 20 | Coventry City | 33 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Arsenal | 69 | 28 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Manchester City | 29 | 55 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| FC Liverpool | 1 | 8 | 31 | 19 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| FC Chelsea | 2 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Aston Villa | 2 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Newcastle United | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Manchester United | 1 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| FC Brentford | 1 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||
| FC Everton | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Crystal Palace | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Leeds United | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | ||
| Nottingham Forest | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 | |||
| FC Fulham | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | |||||
| AFC Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 13 | 14 | 10 | ||||||
| Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 13 | ||||||
| Hull City | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 18 | 14 | |||||||
| Coventry City | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 23 | 43 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 17 Oct | FC Everton | FC Chelsea | 34% | 30% | 36% |
| Sat 17 Oct | FC Fulham | Hull City | 51% | 28% | 20% |
| Sat 17 Oct | Newcastle United | Aston Villa | 34% | 30% | 36% |
| Sat 17 Oct | FC Brentford | FC Liverpool | 29% | 30% | 41% |
| Sat 17 Oct | Manchester City | Ipswich Town | 69% | 22% | 9% |
| Sun 18 Oct | Brighton & Hove Albion | Crystal Palace | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Sun 18 Oct | AFC Bournemouth | AFC Sunderland | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| Sun 18 Oct | Nottingham Forest | FC Arsenal | 17% | 27% | 56% |
| Sun 18 Oct | Leeds United | Manchester United | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Mon 19 Oct | Tottenham Hotspur | Coventry City | 58% | 26% | 16% |