Finland

One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes KuPS the likeliest champion, at 64.4%.

Predicted final table

Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.

Predicted final table for Finland
#	Club	Points	Title
1	KuPS	60	64.4%
2	Inter Turku	59	33.5%
3	HJK Helsinki	53	1.9%
4	IF Gnistan	49	0.2%
5	Vaasa PS	44
6	AC Oulu	41
7	FC Lahti	39
8	FC Ilves	37
9	TPS Turku	35
10	SJK Seinäjoki	27
11	IFK Mariehamn	19
12	FF Jaro	19

Where each club finishes

Probability of each finishing position, Finland
Club	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
KuPS	64	30	6
Inter Turku	34	55	10	1
HJK Helsinki	2	12	64	19	3
IF Gnistan		3	19	65	12	1
Vaasa PS			2	12	61	18	4	2
AC Oulu				2	20	39	21	13	5
FC Lahti					3	27	43	19	8
FC Ilves						13	26	51	10
TPS Turku						1	6	15	78
SJK Seinäjoki										100
IFK Mariehamn											54	46
FF Jaro											46	54

Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.

Fixtures

Upcoming fixtures in Finland with win, draw and loss probabilities
Date	Home	Away	Home win	Draw	Away win
Wed 7 Oct	IF Gnistan	Inter Turku	33%	29%	38%
Thu 8 Oct	HJK Helsinki	Vaasa PS	54%	26%	20%
Thu 8 Oct	KuPS	AC Oulu	65%	23%	12%
Fri 9 Oct	SJK Seinäjoki	FC Lahti	50%	27%	23%
Sat 10 Oct	TPS Turku	FF Jaro	50%	27%	23%
Sat 10 Oct	IFK Mariehamn	FC Ilves	25%	28%	47%
Sun 11 Oct	Inter Turku	KuPS	38%	29%	33%
Mon 12 Oct	Vaasa PS	IF Gnistan	43%	28%	29%
Mon 12 Oct	AC Oulu	HJK Helsinki	30%	29%	41%