France
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes PSG the likeliest champion, at 99.0%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 84 | 99.0% |
| 2 | Olympique Lyon | 63 | 0.3% |
| 3 | AS Monaco | 62 | 0.3% |
| 4 | OSC Lille | 61 | 0.4% |
| 5 | Stade Rennes | 57 | |
| 6 | RC Lens | 54 | |
| 7 | Olympique Marseille | 54 | |
| 8 | Racing Straßburg | 51 | |
| 9 | FC Paris | 49 | |
| 10 | OGC Nizza | 48 | |
| 11 | Stade Brest | 47 | |
| 12 | FC Toulouse | 44 | |
| 13 | FC Lorient | 44 | |
| 14 | AJ Auxerre | 41 | |
| 15 | Le Mans FC | 34 | |
| 16 | SCO Angers | 34 | |
| 17 | ES Troyes AC | 31 | |
| 18 | AC Le Havre | 30 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSG | 99 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Olympique Lyon | 33 | 25 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| AS Monaco | 26 | 23 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| OSC Lille | 23 | 21 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Stade Rennes | 8 | 10 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| RC Lens | 3 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Olympique Marseille | 4 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Racing Straßburg | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||
| FC Paris | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| OGC Nizza | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Stade Brest | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| FC Toulouse | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| FC Lorient | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| AJ Auxerre | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| Le Mans FC | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 13 | ||||||||
| SCO Angers | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 22 | 21 | 13 | |||||||||
| ES Troyes AC | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 28 | 31 | |||||||||
| AC Le Havre | 1 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 18 | 22 | 39 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | FC Toulouse | Racing Straßburg | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Sat 7 Nov | AJ Auxerre | FC Paris | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Sat 7 Nov | PSG | ES Troyes AC | 88% | 10% | 2% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Le Mans FC | AS Monaco | 22% | 25% | 53% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Stade Brest | Olympique Lyon | 34% | 27% | 40% |
| Sun 8 Nov | RC Lens | Olympique Marseille | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Sun 8 Nov | SCO Angers | OGC Nizza | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Sun 8 Nov | AC Le Havre | FC Lorient | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Stade Rennes | OSC Lille | 43% | 26% | 31% |