France
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes PSG the likeliest champion, at 90.4%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 76 | 90.4% |
| 2 | AS Monaco | 63 | 6.6% |
| 3 | OSC Lille | 58 | 1.8% |
| 4 | Olympique Lyon | 57 | 0.9% |
| 5 | Stade Rennes | 55 | 0.2% |
| 6 | RC Lens | 52 | 0.1% |
| 7 | Olympique Marseille | 48 | |
| 8 | Racing Straßburg | 47 | |
| 9 | Stade Brest | 45 | |
| 10 | FC Paris | 44 | |
| 11 | FC Toulouse | 43 | |
| 12 | OGC Nizza | 41 | |
| 13 | FC Lorient | 41 | |
| 14 | AJ Auxerre | 39 | |
| 15 | Le Mans FC | 36 | |
| 16 | SCO Angers | 36 | |
| 17 | AC Le Havre | 32 | |
| 18 | ES Troyes AC | 28 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSG | 90 | 8 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| AS Monaco | 7 | 43 | 23 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| OSC Lille | 2 | 18 | 23 | 19 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Olympique Lyon | 1 | 16 | 21 | 20 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| Stade Rennes | 10 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| RC Lens | 4 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 17 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Olympique Marseille | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Racing Straßburg | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Stade Brest | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| FC Paris | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| FC Toulouse | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| OGC Nizza | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |||
| FC Lorient | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| AJ Auxerre | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 4 | ||||
| Le Mans FC | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 9 | |||||
| SCO Angers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 18 | 12 | 7 | |||||
| AC Le Havre | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 25 | 21 | |||||||
| ES Troyes AC | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 53 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 16 Oct | Le Mans FC | FC Toulouse | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Sat 17 Oct | Racing Straßburg | PSG | 16% | 23% | 61% |
| Sat 17 Oct | OSC Lille | Stade Brest | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Sat 17 Oct | ES Troyes AC | RC Lens | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| Sun 18 Oct | FC Lorient | AS Monaco | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Sun 18 Oct | AC Le Havre | AJ Auxerre | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Sun 18 Oct | SCO Angers | Olympique Marseille | 30% | 27% | 42% |
| Sun 18 Oct | Olympique Lyon | OGC Nizza | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Sun 18 Oct | FC Paris | Stade Rennes | 33% | 27% | 39% |