Germany
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Bayern München the likeliest champion, at 94.9%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 86 | 94.9% |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 73 | 5.0% |
| 3 | Bayer Leverkusen | 64 | 0.1% |
| 4 | SC Freiburg | 56 | |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 53 | |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 52 | |
| 7 | FSV Mainz 05 | 47 | |
| 8 | FC Augsburg | 45 | |
| 9 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 44 | |
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 43 | |
| 11 | TSG Hoffenheim | 42 | |
| 12 | SV Elversberg | 37 | |
| 13 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 36 | |
| 14 | 1. FC Köln | 35 | |
| 15 | Schalke 04 | 34 | |
| 16 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 34 | |
| 17 | HSV | 34 | |
| 18 | SC Paderborn | 28 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 95 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||
| Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 77 | 14 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Bayer Leverkusen | 13 | 54 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||
| SC Freiburg | 4 | 15 | 33 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| RB Leipzig | 1 | 8 | 17 | 24 | 18 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 19 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| FC Augsburg | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Werder Bremen | 1 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| TSG Hoffenheim | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| SV Elversberg | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 5 | ||||
| 1. FC Union Berlin | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 8 | |||||
| 1. FC Köln | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 10 | |||||
| Schalke 04 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 9 | ||||||
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 11 | ||||||
| HSV | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | |||||
| SC Paderborn | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 18 | 42 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9 Oct | Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen | 74% | 19% | 7% |
| Sat 10 Oct | FSV Mainz 05 | Bayer Leverkusen | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Sat 10 Oct | 1. FC Union Berlin | SV Elversberg | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Sat 10 Oct | RB Leipzig | Eintracht Frankfurt | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Sat 10 Oct | SC Paderborn | VfB Stuttgart | 19% | 26% | 55% |
| Sat 10 Oct | FC Augsburg | Bayern München | 6% | 17% | 77% |
| Sat 10 Oct | TSG Hoffenheim | HSV | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| Sun 11 Oct | SC Freiburg | Schalke 04 | 68% | 22% | 11% |
| Sun 11 Oct | 1. FC Köln | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 42% | 29% | 29% |