Germany
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Bayern München the likeliest champion, at 91.9%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 83 | 91.9% |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 72 | 6.7% |
| 3 | Bayer Leverkusen | 64 | 1.1% |
| 4 | RB Leipzig | 60 | 0.1% |
| 5 | SC Freiburg | 60 | 0.2% |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 54 | |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 50 | |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 48 | |
| 9 | TSG Hoffenheim | 46 | |
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 45 | |
| 11 | FC Augsburg | 44 | |
| 12 | SV Elversberg | 42 | |
| 13 | 1. FC Union Berlin | 40 | |
| 14 | 1. FC Köln | 39 | |
| 15 | HSV | 39 | |
| 16 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 36 | |
| 17 | Schalke 04 | 34 | |
| 18 | SC Paderborn | 34 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | 92 | 8 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 64 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 15 | 35 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| RB Leipzig | 6 | 21 | 24 | 21 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| SC Freiburg | 6 | 17 | 25 | 22 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 19 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Werder Bremen | 2 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| TSG Hoffenheim | 1 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||
| FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| FC Augsburg | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |||
| SV Elversberg | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 1. FC Union Berlin | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | ||||
| 1. FC Köln | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 8 | ||||
| HSV | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 8 | |||||
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 20 | |||||
| Schalke 04 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 21 | 24 | |||||||
| SC Paderborn | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 20 | 27 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | HSV | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Borussia Dortmund | SV Elversberg | 74% | 19% | 8% |
| Sat 7 Nov | SC Paderborn | Eintracht Frankfurt | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Sat 7 Nov | VfB Stuttgart | Werder Bremen | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Sat 7 Nov | RB Leipzig | FC Augsburg | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Sat 7 Nov | FSV Mainz 05 | Bayern München | 10% | 21% | 68% |
| Sun 8 Nov | TSG Hoffenheim | Schalke 04 | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Sun 8 Nov | 1. FC Köln | Bayer Leverkusen | 21% | 26% | 53% |
| Sun 8 Nov | SC Freiburg | 1. FC Union Berlin | 58% | 25% | 17% |