Gibraltar
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Lincoln Red Imps the likeliest champion, at 52.9%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lincoln Red Imps | 50 | 52.9% |
| 2 | St Joseph’s FC | 48 | 46.5% |
| 3 | Mons Calpe SC | 38 | 0.4% |
| 4 | Bruno's Magpies | 36 | 0.2% |
| 5 | Europa FC | 33 | |
| 6 | Glacis United | 25 | |
| 7 | Lions Gibraltar | 24 | |
| 8 | Europa Point | 19 | |
| 9 | Lynx FC | 15 | |
| 10 | Hound Dogs | 11 | |
| 11 | College 1975 FC | 11 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln Red Imps | 53 | 45 | 2 | ||||||||
| St Joseph’s FC | 47 | 50 | 4 | ||||||||
| Mons Calpe SC | 4 | 49 | 31 | 13 | 3 | ||||||
| Bruno's Magpies | 1 | 37 | 36 | 22 | 4 | 1 | |||||
| Europa FC | 8 | 30 | 49 | 10 | 2 | ||||||
| Glacis United | 1 | 9 | 47 | 32 | 9 | 2 | |||||
| Lions Gibraltar | 2 | 6 | 31 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 1 | ||||
| Europa Point | 5 | 17 | 50 | 22 | 5 | ||||||
| Lynx FC | 1 | 6 | 19 | 42 | 22 | 11 | |||||
| Hound Dogs | 1 | 5 | 15 | 34 | 46 | ||||||
| College 1975 FC | 4 | 15 | 39 | 42 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | Europa FC | Hound Dogs | 78% | 12% | 10% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Mons Calpe SC | Bruno's Magpies | 42% | 18% | 40% |
| Sat 7 Nov | St Joseph’s FC | Europa Point | 89% | 8% | 3% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Lynx FC | Lions Gibraltar | 38% | 18% | 44% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Lincoln Red Imps | College 1975 FC | 93% | 6% | 2% |