Gibraltar
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes St Joseph’s FC the likeliest champion, at 56.3%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Joseph’s FC | 48 | 56.3% |
| 2 | Lincoln Red Imps | 48 | 42.9% |
| 3 | Mons Calpe SC | 35 | 0.4% |
| 4 | Europa FC | 35 | 0.2% |
| 5 | Bruno's Magpies | 33 | 0.2% |
| 6 | Lions Gibraltar | 22 | |
| 7 | Glacis United | 21 | |
| 8 | Europa Point | 20 | |
| 9 | Lynx FC | 18 | |
| 10 | Hound Dogs | 15 | |
| 11 | College 1975 FC | 15 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Joseph’s FC | 56 | 42 | 2 | ||||||||
| Lincoln Red Imps | 43 | 52 | 5 | 1 | |||||||
| Mons Calpe SC | 3 | 32 | 32 | 26 | 4 | 1 | |||||
| Europa FC | 2 | 36 | 35 | 24 | 2 | ||||||
| Bruno's Magpies | 2 | 25 | 29 | 36 | 7 | 1 | |||||
| Lions Gibraltar | 1 | 6 | 32 | 24 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 3 | |||
| Glacis United | 1 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 21 | 13 | 11 | 3 | |||
| Europa Point | 1 | 2 | 16 | 23 | 22 | 18 | 12 | 7 | |||
| Lynx FC | 9 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 20 | 17 | |||||
| Hound Dogs | 3 | 7 | 12 | 18 | 24 | 36 | |||||
| College 1975 FC | 3 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 27 | 35 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10 Oct | St Joseph’s FC | Lions Gibraltar | 80% | 11% | 8% |
| Sat 10 Oct | Lincoln Red Imps | Europa FC | 63% | 16% | 21% |
| Sun 11 Oct | Glacis United | Hound Dogs | 34% | 18% | 48% |
| Sun 11 Oct | Europa Point | College 1975 FC | 44% | 18% | 38% |
| Mon 12 Oct | Mons Calpe SC | Lynx FC | 54% | 17% | 29% |