Greece

One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Olympiakos Piräus the likeliest champion, at 41.6%.

Predicted final table

Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.

Predicted final table for Greece
#	Club	Points	Title
1	Olympiakos Piräus	58	41.6%
2	Panathinaikos	56	30.9%
3	AEK Athen	54	20.2%
4	PAOK	51	7.2%
5	Aris Thessaloniki	40	0.1%
6	OFI Kreta	35
7	Iraklis 1908	32
8	Panetolikos	27
9	Kifisia	27
10	Kalamata	25
11	Asteras Tripolis	25
12	Levadiakos	25
13	Atromitos	22
14	Volos	19

Where each club finishes

Probability of each finishing position, Greece
Club	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Olympiakos Piräus	42	30	18	10
Panathinaikos	31	32	24	12	1
AEK Athen	20	25	32	21	2
PAOK	7	13	24	49	6	1
Aris Thessaloniki			2	6	58	21	7	3	2
OFI Kreta				2	19	38	21	10	4	3	2	1
Iraklis 1908					9	21	28	17	11	6	5	2	1	1
Panetolikos					2	7	12	16	16	18	12	10	6	2
Kifisia					2	5	11	15	17	15	15	11	6	3
Kalamata					1	3	6	11	14	15	15	17	13	6
Asteras Tripolis					1	2	7	11	14	13	17	15	14	8
Levadiakos						2	5	9	12	15	13	15	16	12
Atromitos						1	1	5	8	10	15	17	21	22
Volos								2	4	5	8	12	23	46

Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.

Fixtures

Upcoming fixtures in Greece with win, draw and loss probabilities
Date	Home	Away	Home win	Draw	Away win
Sat 17 Oct	Levadiakos	Volos	54%	29%	17%
Sun 18 Oct	PAOK	Iraklis 1908	70%	23%	8%
Sun 18 Oct	Panathinaikos	Asteras Tripolis	77%	18%	5%
Sun 18 Oct	Kifisia	Aris Thessaloniki	22%	31%	47%
Sun 18 Oct	Kalamata	OFI Kreta	29%	33%	39%
Sun 18 Oct	Panetolikos	Olympiakos Piräus	6%	20%	74%