Ireland Republic
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Shamrock Rovers the likeliest champion, at 65.9%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 67 | 65.9% |
| 2 | St. Patrick's | 64 | 25.3% |
| 3 | Bohemians Dublin | 62 | 8.8% |
| 4 | Dundalk FC | 47 | |
| 5 | Derry City | 46 | |
| 6 | Shelbourne FC | 44 | |
| 7 | Galway | 44 | |
| 8 | Waterford | 40 | |
| 9 | Drogheda | 39 | |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 28 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shamrock Rovers | 66 | 27 | 7 | |||||||
| St. Patrick's | 25 | 52 | 23 | |||||||
| Bohemians Dublin | 9 | 21 | 70 | |||||||
| Dundalk FC | 47 | 28 | 18 | 6 | 1 | |||||
| Derry City | 31 | 30 | 22 | 12 | 5 | 1 | ||||
| Shelbourne FC | 13 | 21 | 26 | 27 | 11 | 3 | ||||
| Galway | 9 | 18 | 26 | 29 | 14 | 6 | ||||
| Waterford | 2 | 5 | 14 | 39 | 40 | |||||
| Drogheda | 2 | 4 | 12 | 31 | 51 | |||||
| Sligo Rovers | 100 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 25 Sept | Galway | Shelbourne FC | 31% | 34% | 34% |