Italy
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Inter Mailand the likeliest champion, at 58.3%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Mailand | 89 | 58.3% |
| 2 | AS Rom | 83 | 22.5% |
| 3 | Lazio Rom | 81 | 14.1% |
| 4 | AC Mailand | 75 | 3.3% |
| 5 | Juventus Turin | 73 | 1.1% |
| 6 | Como 1907 | 71 | 0.4% |
| 7 | SSC Neapel | 66 | 0.2% |
| 8 | FC Bologna | 63 | 0.1% |
| 9 | Atalanta Bergamo | 59 | |
| 10 | FC Turin | 51 | |
| 11 | CFC Genua | 50 | |
| 12 | AC Florenz | 49 | |
| 13 | Frosinone Calcio | 49 | |
| 14 | Cagliari Calcio | 47 | |
| 15 | Sassuolo Calcio | 42 | |
| 16 | Parma Calcio | 40 | |
| 17 | Udinese Calcio | 38 | |
| 18 | US Lecce | 37 | |
| 19 | AC Monza | 31 | |
| 20 | FC Venedig | 24 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Mailand | 58 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| AS Rom | 23 | 32 | 22 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Lazio Rom | 14 | 26 | 30 | 16 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| AC Mailand | 3 | 10 | 15 | 23 | 21 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Juventus Turin | 1 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 23 | 20 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Como 1907 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 21 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||
| SSC Neapel | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 25 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| FC Bologna | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 26 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Atalanta Bergamo | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 24 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| FC Turin | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| CFC Genua | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| AC Florenz | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||||||||
| Frosinone Calcio | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Cagliari Calcio | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
| Sassuolo Calcio | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 7 | 1 | |||||||
| Parma Calcio | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 2 | ||||||||
| Udinese Calcio | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 14 | 18 | 21 | 12 | 4 | ||||||||
| US Lecce | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 15 | 21 | 19 | 16 | 3 | |||||||||
| AC Monza | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 38 | 16 | |||||||||||||
| FC Venedig | 1 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 74 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | FC Venedig | Udinese Calcio | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Parma Calcio | FC Bologna | 23% | 22% | 55% |
| Sat 7 Nov | FC Turin | US Lecce | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| Sat 7 Nov | AS Rom | Sassuolo Calcio | 69% | 19% | 13% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Cagliari Calcio | Frosinone Calcio | 46% | 24% | 31% |
| Sun 8 Nov | AC Monza | Atalanta Bergamo | 16% | 20% | 64% |
| Sun 8 Nov | CFC Genua | AC Mailand | 21% | 22% | 56% |
| Sun 8 Nov | AC Florenz | Juventus Turin | 23% | 23% | 54% |
| Sun 8 Nov | SSC Neapel | Lazio Rom | 39% | 24% | 37% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Inter Mailand | Como 1907 | 59% | 21% | 19% |