Latvia
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Rīgas FS the likeliest champion, at 79.9%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 88 | 79.9% |
| 2 | Riga FC | 85 | 20.1% |
| 3 | FK Auda | 70 | |
| 4 | FK Liepāja | 52 | |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 46 | |
| 6 | Super Nova | 39 | |
| 7 | FK Jelgava | 36 | |
| 8 | SC Grobiņa | 30 | |
| 9 | FK Tukums 2000 | 27 | |
| 10 | Ogre United | 23 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rīgas FS | 80 | 20 | ||||||||
| Riga FC | 20 | 80 | ||||||||
| FK Auda | 100 | |||||||||
| FK Liepāja | 91 | 9 | ||||||||
| BFC Daugavpils | 9 | 88 | 3 | |||||||
| Super Nova | 3 | 79 | 18 | |||||||
| FK Jelgava | 18 | 79 | 3 | |||||||
| SC Grobiņa | 1 | 3 | 79 | 17 | 1 | |||||
| FK Tukums 2000 | 17 | 76 | 7 | |||||||
| Ogre United | 1 | 7 | 92 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10 Oct | Super Nova | SC Grobiņa | 35% | 33% | 33% |
| Sat 10 Oct | FK Tukums 2000 | Riga FC | 4% | 17% | 79% |
| Sun 11 Oct | Ogre United | BFC Daugavpils | 27% | 32% | 41% |
| Sun 11 Oct | Rīgas FS | FK Jelgava | 80% | 16% | 3% |
| Mon 12 Oct | FK Liepāja | FK Auda | 31% | 32% | 36% |