Lithuania
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes FK Sūduva the likeliest champion, at 51.0%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Sūduva | 62 | 51.0% |
| 2 | FK Kauno Žalgiris | 61 | 46.3% |
| 3 | Žalgiris Vilnius | 57 | 2.5% |
| 4 | FK Transinvest | 54 | 0.2% |
| 5 | Dziugas Telsiai | 50 | |
| 6 | FK Banga | 50 | |
| 7 | FK Panevezys | 44 | |
| 8 | FC Hegelmann | 31 | |
| 9 | Siauliai FA | 26 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Sūduva | 51 | 41 | 8 | 1 | |||||
| FK Kauno Žalgiris | 46 | 44 | 9 | 1 | |||||
| Žalgiris Vilnius | 3 | 12 | 55 | 24 | 6 | 1 | |||
| FK Transinvest | 3 | 24 | 47 | 21 | 5 | ||||
| Dziugas Telsiai | 2 | 16 | 32 | 44 | 6 | ||||
| FK Banga | 2 | 12 | 39 | 41 | 5 | ||||
| FK Panevezys | 2 | 8 | 89 | ||||||
| FC Hegelmann | 94 | 6 | |||||||
| Siauliai FA | 6 | 94 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 20 Sept | Siauliai FA | FK Kauno Žalgiris | 25% | 29% | 46% |
| Sun 20 Sept | FC Hegelmann | FK Sūduva | 34% | 30% | 36% |