Malta
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes FC Valletta the likeliest champion, at 100.0%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Valletta | 26 | 100.0% |
| 2 | Marsaxlokk FC | 21 | |
| 3 | Sliema Wanderers | 20 | |
| 4 | Ħamrun Spartans | 18 | |
| 5 | Floriana FC | 18 | |
| 6 | FC Birkirkara | 17 | |
| 7 | Hibernians FC | 17 | |
| 8 | Zabbar | 15 | |
| 9 | Mosta FC | 15 | |
| 10 | Balzan F.C. | 12 | |
| 11 | Birzebbuga | 7 | |
| 12 | Gżira United | 7 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Valletta | 100 | |||||||||||
| Marsaxlokk FC | 89 | 11 | ||||||||||
| Sliema Wanderers | 11 | 40 | 24 | 17 | 8 | |||||||
| Ħamrun Spartans | 23 | 24 | 33 | 20 | ||||||||
| Floriana FC | 21 | 30 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 5 | ||||||
| FC Birkirkara | 1 | 10 | 26 | 27 | 14 | 17 | 5 | |||||
| Hibernians FC | 4 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 52 | 18 | ||||||
| Zabbar | 17 | 40 | 43 | |||||||||
| Mosta FC | 8 | 21 | 20 | 43 | 9 | |||||||
| Balzan F.C. | 9 | 91 | ||||||||||
| Birzebbuga | 75 | 25 | ||||||||||
| Gżira United | 25 | 75 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | Birzebbuga | Mosta FC | 36% | 31% | 34% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Gżira United | Balzan F.C. | 43% | 30% | 26% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Floriana FC | Hibernians FC | 51% | 29% | 20% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Marsaxlokk FC | Ħamrun Spartans | 35% | 31% | 35% |
| Sun 8 Nov | FC Birkirkara | Zabbar | 56% | 27% | 17% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Sliema Wanderers | FC Valletta | 40% | 30% | 30% |