Malta

One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Floriana FC the likeliest champion, at 61.9%.

Predicted final table

Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.

Predicted final table for Malta
#	Club	Points	Title
1	Floriana FC	23	61.9%
2	FC Valletta	20	18.9%
3	Ħamrun Spartans	18	3.5%
4	Marsaxlokk FC	18	4.8%
5	FC Birkirkara	18	4.5%
6	Sliema Wanderers	17	2.1%
7	Mosta FC	17	3.4%
8	Balzan F.C.	15	0.9%
9	Hibernians FC	12
10	Zabbar	10
11	Gżira United	10
12	Birzebbuga	4

Where each club finishes

Probability of each finishing position, Malta
Club	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Floriana FC	62	22	8	5	1	1	1
FC Valletta	19	24	18	13	10	7	6	3	1
Ħamrun Spartans	4	11	16	16	17	12	11	8	4
Marsaxlokk FC	5	14	17	17	14	12	10	8	2
FC Birkirkara	5	10	16	16	14	14	13	10	4
Sliema Wanderers	2	9	11	13	16	15	15	12	5	1
Mosta FC	3	7	9	12	15	18	14	14	6	1
Balzan F.C.	1	2	4	7	10	14	19	24	14	5	2
Hibernians FC				1	2	5	9	13	34	22	13	1
Zabbar						1	2	3	18	39	34	3
Gżira United						1	2	4	13	30	42	8
Birzebbuga										2	9	89

Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.

Fixtures

Upcoming fixtures in Malta with win, draw and loss probabilities
Date	Home	Away	Home win	Draw	Away win
Fri 9 Oct	Mosta FC	Birzebbuga	52%	27%	21%
Sat 10 Oct	Marsaxlokk FC	Zabbar	58%	26%	16%
Sat 10 Oct	FC Birkirkara	FC Valletta	43%	29%	28%
Sun 11 Oct	Floriana FC	Balzan F.C.	62%	24%	14%
Sun 11 Oct	Ħamrun Spartans	Hibernians FC	51%	28%	21%
Sun 11 Oct	Sliema Wanderers	Gżira United	49%	28%	23%