Moldova
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Sheriff Tiraspol the likeliest champion, at 90.7%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 46 | 90.7% |
| 2 | Zimbru Chișinău | 38 | 5.5% |
| 3 | FC Petrocub | 38 | 3.8% |
| 4 | FC Milsami | 29 | |
| 5 | Dacia Buiucani | 27 | |
| 6 | Politehnica UTM | 23 | |
| 7 | Real Sireti | 17 | |
| 8 | Balti | 12 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheriff Tiraspol | 91 | 8 | 1 | |||||
| Zimbru Chișinău | 6 | 48 | 44 | 3 | ||||
| FC Petrocub | 4 | 43 | 50 | 3 | 1 | |||
| FC Milsami | 4 | 58 | 29 | 8 | ||||
| Dacia Buiucani | 1 | 30 | 52 | 17 | 1 | |||
| Politehnica UTM | 7 | 18 | 66 | 8 | ||||
| Real Sireti | 1 | 8 | 81 | 11 | ||||
| Balti | 10 | 89 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 17 Oct | FC Petrocub | Dacia Buiucani | 73% | 19% | 8% |
| Sat 17 Oct | Sheriff Tiraspol | Real Sireti | 77% | 17% | 6% |
| Sun 18 Oct | Balti | Politehnica UTM | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Sun 18 Oct | FC Milsami | Zimbru Chișinău | 44% | 27% | 29% |