Montenegro
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes FK Sutjeska Nikšić the likeliest champion, at 24.0%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 29 | 24.0% |
| 2 | FK Dečic Tuzi | 28 | 14.4% |
| 3 | Otrant | 28 | 21.2% |
| 4 | FK Mornar Bar | 28 | 12.4% |
| 5 | FK Budućnost | 28 | 18.7% |
| 6 | Bokelj | 26 | 7.5% |
| 7 | Mladost DG | 22 | 0.9% |
| 8 | Jezero | 22 | 0.4% |
| 9 | Petrovac | 21 | 0.5% |
| 10 | FK Arsenal Tivat | 18 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Sutjeska Nikšić | 24 | 18 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| FK Dečic Tuzi | 14 | 14 | 17 | 17 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| Otrant | 21 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| FK Mornar Bar | 12 | 16 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| FK Budućnost | 19 | 20 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| Bokelj | 8 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
| Mladost DG | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 20 | 19 | 16 |
| Jezero | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 20 | 23 | 16 | |
| Petrovac | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 24 | 23 | 19 |
| FK Arsenal Tivat | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 23 | 46 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 18 Oct | FK Sutjeska Nikšić | Bokelj | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Sun 18 Oct | Petrovac | Otrant | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Sun 18 Oct | FK Arsenal Tivat | FK Mornar Bar | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Sun 18 Oct | FK Dečic Tuzi | FK Budućnost | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Sun 18 Oct | Mladost DG | Jezero | 41% | 26% | 33% |