Netherlands
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes PSV Eindhoven the likeliest champion, at 66.5%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 77 | 66.5% |
| 2 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 72 | 20.5% |
| 3 | Ajax Amsterdam | 68 | 6.1% |
| 4 | Twente Enschede | 67 | 5.5% |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 63 | 1.3% |
| 6 | SC Heerenveen | 53 | |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 50 | 0.1% |
| 8 | FC Utrecht | 50 | |
| 9 | FC Groningen | 46 | |
| 10 | NEC Nijmegen | 46 | |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 43 | |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 42 | |
| 13 | PEC Zwolle | 40 | |
| 14 | Excelsior Rotterdam | 38 | |
| 15 | Telstar | 37 | |
| 16 | SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden | 36 | |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 29 | |
| 18 | Willem II Tilburg | 23 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 67 | 23 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Feyenoord Rotterdam | 21 | 36 | 23 | 14 | 6 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Ajax Amsterdam | 6 | 18 | 27 | 29 | 16 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Twente Enschede | 6 | 17 | 28 | 26 | 17 | 4 | 1 | |||||||||||
| AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 6 | 13 | 24 | 38 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| SC Heerenveen | 1 | 3 | 8 | 32 | 18 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 6 | 16 | 23 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| FC Utrecht | 1 | 3 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| FC Groningen | 1 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||||
| Go Ahead Eagles | 2 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||||||
| Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 1 | |||||
| PEC Zwolle | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 5 | ||||||
| Excelsior Rotterdam | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 8 | 1 | ||||||
| Telstar | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 8 | 2 | ||||||
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 10 | 2 | |||||||
| ADO Den Haag | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 45 | 21 | ||||||||||
| Willem II Tilburg | 1 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 74 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | Willem II Tilburg | PEC Zwolle | 29% | 30% | 41% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Fortuna Sittard | Telstar | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Sat 7 Nov | ADO Den Haag | Sparta Rotterdam | 28% | 30% | 42% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Excelsior Rotterdam | Go Ahead Eagles | 33% | 31% | 36% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Twente Enschede | Ajax Amsterdam | 37% | 31% | 33% |
| Sun 8 Nov | SC Heerenveen | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 22% | 29% | 48% |
| Sun 8 Nov | SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden | PSV Eindhoven | 7% | 20% | 74% |
| Sun 8 Nov | AZ Alkmaar | FC Groningen | 58% | 26% | 15% |
| Sun 8 Nov | FC Utrecht | NEC Nijmegen | 40% | 30% | 30% |