Netherlands
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes PSV Eindhoven the likeliest champion, at 78.0%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 77 | 78.0% |
| 2 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 67 | 11.0% |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 66 | 6.3% |
| 4 | Ajax Amsterdam | 63 | 2.5% |
| 5 | Twente Enschede | 63 | 2.2% |
| 6 | Go Ahead Eagles | 46 | |
| 7 | FC Utrecht | 46 | |
| 8 | SC Heerenveen | 45 | |
| 9 | Fortuna Sittard | 45 | |
| 10 | NEC Nijmegen | 45 | |
| 11 | FC Groningen | 44 | |
| 12 | Excelsior Rotterdam | 42 | |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 38 | |
| 14 | Telstar | 35 | |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 35 | |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 26 | |
| 17 | Willem II Tilburg | 25 | |
| 18 | SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden | 25 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 78 | 15 | 5 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| Feyenoord Rotterdam | 11 | 34 | 24 | 19 | 10 | 2 | ||||||||||||
| AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 24 | 28 | 24 | 15 | 3 | ||||||||||||
| Ajax Amsterdam | 3 | 16 | 22 | 24 | 29 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Twente Enschede | 2 | 11 | 20 | 29 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 2 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| FC Utrecht | 1 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | ||||||
| SC Heerenveen | 2 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Fortuna Sittard | 3 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||||||
| FC Groningen | 2 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||||
| Excelsior Rotterdam | 1 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||||||
| Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Telstar | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 17 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||||||
| PEC Zwolle | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 17 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 3 | |||||
| ADO Den Haag | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 25 | 28 | 27 | ||||||||||
| Willem II Tilburg | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 28 | 38 | ||||||||||
| SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden | 2 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 31 | 30 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9 Oct | PSV Eindhoven | SC Heerenveen | 72% | 21% | 7% |
| Sat 10 Oct | Feyenoord Rotterdam | AZ Alkmaar | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Sat 10 Oct | Go Ahead Eagles | Sparta Rotterdam | 43% | 30% | 26% |
| Sat 10 Oct | Fortuna Sittard | Twente Enschede | 21% | 29% | 49% |
| Sat 10 Oct | Ajax Amsterdam | NEC Nijmegen | 55% | 27% | 17% |
| Sun 11 Oct | FC Utrecht | Willem II Tilburg | 62% | 25% | 13% |
| Sun 11 Oct | Excelsior Rotterdam | FC Groningen | 37% | 31% | 32% |
| Sun 11 Oct | PEC Zwolle | SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden | 54% | 28% | 18% |
| Sun 11 Oct | Telstar | ADO Den Haag | 49% | 29% | 22% |