North Macedonia
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes KF Shkëndija the likeliest champion, at 70.3%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KF Shkëndija | 40 | 70.3% |
| 2 | FC Struga | 37 | 28.2% |
| 3 | Vardar Skopje | 34 | 1.3% |
| 4 | GFK Tikveš Kavadarci | 29 | 0.2% |
| 5 | FK Sileks Kratovo | 25 | |
| 6 | Shkendija Haracine | 22 | |
| 7 | Bregalnica | 20 | |
| 8 | Arsimi | 16 | |
| 9 | Bashkimi | 16 | |
| 10 | FK Skopje | 9 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KF Shkëndija | 70 | 25 | 4 | |||||||
| FC Struga | 28 | 51 | 19 | 2 | ||||||
| Vardar Skopje | 1 | 22 | 61 | 13 | 2 | |||||
| GFK Tikveš Kavadarci | 2 | 14 | 61 | 20 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| FK Sileks Kratovo | 2 | 20 | 54 | 19 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| Shkendija Haracine | 1 | 16 | 48 | 26 | 8 | 1 | ||||
| Bregalnica | 1 | 7 | 24 | 45 | 17 | 6 | ||||
| Arsimi | 3 | 11 | 38 | 43 | 5 | |||||
| Bashkimi | 4 | 14 | 35 | 40 | 7 | |||||
| FK Skopje | 1 | 3 | 10 | 87 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | GFK Tikveš Kavadarci | FK Skopje | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Sat 7 Nov | FK Sileks Kratovo | Vardar Skopje | 28% | 22% | 50% |
| Sat 7 Nov | FC Struga | KF Shkëndija | 29% | 22% | 49% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Bashkimi | Bregalnica | 43% | 23% | 34% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Arsimi | Shkendija Haracine | 42% | 23% | 35% |