North Macedonia
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes KF Shkëndija the likeliest champion, at 74.0%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KF Shkëndija | 39 | 74.0% |
| 2 | Vardar Skopje | 35 | 14.7% |
| 3 | FC Struga | 33 | 9.6% |
| 4 | GFK Tikveš Kavadarci | 29 | 1.6% |
| 5 | Shkendija Haracine | 24 | |
| 6 | FK Sileks Kratovo | 24 | 0.1% |
| 7 | Bregalnica | 19 | |
| 8 | Arsimi | 19 | |
| 9 | Bashkimi | 17 | |
| 10 | FK Skopje | 10 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KF Shkëndija | 74 | 19 | 6 | 1 | ||||||
| Vardar Skopje | 15 | 44 | 30 | 9 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| FC Struga | 10 | 28 | 39 | 17 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| GFK Tikveš Kavadarci | 2 | 8 | 20 | 41 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Shkendija Haracine | 1 | 2 | 13 | 29 | 31 | 17 | 6 | 2 | ||
| FK Sileks Kratovo | 2 | 15 | 33 | 29 | 12 | 6 | 2 | |||
| Bregalnica | 1 | 5 | 13 | 28 | 31 | 19 | 3 | |||
| Arsimi | 2 | 7 | 13 | 26 | 28 | 20 | 4 | |||
| Bashkimi | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 25 | 44 | 10 | |||
| FK Skopje | 1 | 2 | 12 | 84 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 17 Oct | Bregalnica | Vardar Skopje | 14% | 18% | 68% |
| Sat 17 Oct | Shkendija Haracine | FC Struga | 21% | 21% | 58% |
| Sun 18 Oct | Bashkimi | FK Sileks Kratovo | 26% | 22% | 52% |
| Sun 18 Oct | FK Skopje | KF Shkëndija | 7% | 14% | 78% |
| Mon 19 Oct | Arsimi | GFK Tikveš Kavadarci | 33% | 22% | 45% |