Northern Ireland

One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Coleraine FC the likeliest champion, at 39.1%.

Predicted final table

Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.

Predicted final table for Northern Ireland
#	Club	Points	Title
1	Coleraine FC	76	39.1%
2	Linfield FC	76	35.4%
3	Larne FC	74	25.5%
4	Glentoran FC	59
5	Cliftonville FC	48
6	C. Rangers	43
7	Crusaders FC	43
8	Dungannon Swifts	41
9	Ballymena United	35
10	Limavady	33
11	Portadown	28
12	Bangor FC	27

Where each club finishes

Probability of each finishing position, Northern Ireland
Club	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Coleraine FC	39	37	24	1
Linfield FC	35	35	27	2
Larne FC	26	28	45	2
Glentoran FC			4	82	10	2	1
Cliftonville FC				8	47	24	11	5	3	1
C. Rangers				2	15	27	26	18	9	4	1
Crusaders FC				2	17	24	24	21	8	4	1
Dungannon Swifts				1	9	17	23	22	16	9	2
Ballymena United					2	5	10	18	27	23	12	4
Limavady						1	4	12	23	29	21	10
Portadown							1	4	9	19	35	32
Bangor FC								1	6	13	27	53

Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.

Fixtures

Upcoming fixtures in Northern Ireland with win, draw and loss probabilities
Date	Home	Away	Home win	Draw	Away win
Fri 6 Nov	Cliftonville FC	Larne FC	20%	19%	61%
Sat 7 Nov	Linfield FC	Coleraine FC	45%	22%	33%
Sat 7 Nov	C. Rangers	Glentoran FC	20%	19%	61%
Sat 7 Nov	Portadown	Ballymena United	41%	22%	37%
Sat 7 Nov	Dungannon Swifts	Limavady	54%	21%	25%
Sat 7 Nov	Bangor FC	Crusaders FC	32%	22%	47%