Norway
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes FK Bodø/Glimt the likeliest champion, at 92.9%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Bodø/Glimt | 74 | 92.9% |
| 2 | Viking FK | 69 | 7.1% |
| 3 | Rosenborg Trondheim | 53 | |
| 4 | Tromsø IL | 50 | |
| 5 | Lillestrøm SK | 50 | |
| 6 | Molde FK | 49 | |
| 7 | Vålerenga IF | 42 | |
| 8 | Brann Bergen | 41 | |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 | 37 | |
| 10 | Fredrikstad FK | 36 | |
| 11 | KFUM Oslo | 35 | |
| 12 | Sandefjord Fotball | 33 | |
| 13 | HamKam | 33 | |
| 14 | Kristiansund BK | 30 | |
| 15 | Aalesunds FK | 27 | |
| 16 | IK Start | 23 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Bodø/Glimt | 93 | 7 | ||||||||||||||
| Viking FK | 7 | 93 | ||||||||||||||
| Rosenborg Trondheim | 58 | 23 | 13 | 5 | ||||||||||||
| Tromsø IL | 13 | 29 | 28 | 28 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Lillestrøm SK | 13 | 27 | 26 | 31 | 3 | |||||||||||
| Molde FK | 16 | 21 | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Vålerenga IF | 1 | 4 | 40 | 41 | 11 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||
| Brann Bergen | 3 | 44 | 30 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||||||||
| Sarpsborg 08 | 5 | 14 | 31 | 25 | 15 | 8 | 3 | |||||||||
| Fredrikstad FK | 3 | 9 | 22 | 22 | 18 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| KFUM Oslo | 1 | 3 | 13 | 20 | 25 | 23 | 13 | 2 | ||||||||
| Sandefjord Fotball | 2 | 6 | 13 | 20 | 23 | 20 | 13 | 3 | ||||||||
| HamKam | 1 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 23 | 31 | 15 | 2 | ||||||||
| Kristiansund BK | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 43 | 24 | 4 | ||||||||
| Aalesunds FK | 1 | 7 | 23 | 60 | 10 | |||||||||||
| IK Start | 1 | 2 | 11 | 86 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7 Nov | Rosenborg Trondheim | IK Start | 76% | 14% | 11% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Kristiansund BK | Vålerenga IF | 42% | 20% | 39% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Viking FK | KFUM Oslo | 78% | 13% | 9% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Sandefjord Fotball | Molde FK | 34% | 19% | 47% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Fredrikstad FK | Brann Bergen | 39% | 20% | 42% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Tromsø IL | FK Bodø/Glimt | 18% | 17% | 66% |
| Sun 8 Nov | HamKam | Sarpsborg 08 | 45% | 19% | 35% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Lillestrøm SK | Aalesunds FK | 65% | 17% | 19% |