Norway
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes FK Bodø/Glimt the likeliest champion, at 84.4%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Bodø/Glimt | 71 | 84.4% |
| 2 | Viking FK | 67 | 15.6% |
| 3 | Tromsø IL | 51 | |
| 4 | Rosenborg Trondheim | 49 | |
| 5 | Molde FK | 49 | |
| 6 | Brann Bergen | 44 | |
| 7 | Lillestrøm SK | 44 | |
| 8 | Fredrikstad FK | 40 | |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 | 38 | |
| 10 | Sandefjord Fotball | 35 | |
| 11 | KFUM Oslo | 34 | |
| 12 | Vålerenga IF | 34 | |
| 13 | HamKam | 34 | |
| 14 | Kristiansund BK | 31 | |
| 15 | Aalesunds FK | 29 | |
| 16 | IK Start | 25 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Bodø/Glimt | 84 | 16 | ||||||||||||||
| Viking FK | 16 | 84 | ||||||||||||||
| Tromsø IL | 39 | 32 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Rosenborg Trondheim | 20 | 26 | 27 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| Molde FK | 34 | 24 | 20 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| Brann Bergen | 2 | 7 | 16 | 26 | 25 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| Lillestrøm SK | 4 | 9 | 16 | 24 | 25 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Fredrikstad FK | 1 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 25 | 24 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Sarpsborg 08 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 23 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Sandefjord Fotball | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 17 | 19 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||||
| KFUM Oslo | 2 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 19 | 17 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||||||
| Vålerenga IF | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 17 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||||||
| HamKam | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 6 | 2 | |||||
| Kristiansund BK | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 20 | 26 | 9 | |||||||
| Aalesunds FK | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 23 | 34 | 15 | ||||||||
| IK Start | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 69 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9 Oct | Brann Bergen | Viking FK | 40% | 19% | 41% |
| Sat 10 Oct | FK Bodø/Glimt | Kristiansund BK | 87% | 9% | 4% |
| Sat 10 Oct | Rosenborg Trondheim | Sandefjord Fotball | 65% | 16% | 18% |
| Sun 11 Oct | Fredrikstad FK | Tromsø IL | 46% | 19% | 35% |
| Sun 11 Oct | Lillestrøm SK | Molde FK | 37% | 19% | 44% |
| Sun 11 Oct | Aalesunds FK | Sarpsborg 08 | 40% | 19% | 41% |
| Sun 11 Oct | IK Start | HamKam | 43% | 19% | 38% |
| Mon 12 Oct | KFUM Oslo | Vålerenga IF | 48% | 19% | 33% |