Poland
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Lech Posen the likeliest champion, at 85.2%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Posen | 76 | 85.2% |
| 2 | Legia Warschau | 63 | 6.8% |
| 3 | Górnik Zabrze | 62 | 4.9% |
| 4 | Pogoń Stettin | 59 | 2.0% |
| 5 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 55 | 0.5% |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 54 | 0.5% |
| 7 | GKS Katowice | 51 | 0.1% |
| 8 | Zagłębie Lubin | 51 | |
| 9 | Korona Kielce | 48 | |
| 10 | Wisła Krakau | 48 | |
| 11 | Motor Lublin | 45 | |
| 12 | Wisła Płock | 45 | |
| 13 | Raków Częstochowa | 42 | |
| 14 | KS Cracovia | 40 | |
| 15 | Śląsk Wrocław | 39 | |
| 16 | Widzew Lodz | 38 | |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 37 | |
| 18 | Wieczysta Krakow | 33 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Posen | 85 | 11 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| Legia Warschau | 7 | 35 | 25 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| Górnik Zabrze | 5 | 26 | 27 | 18 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| Pogoń Stettin | 2 | 16 | 19 | 20 | 15 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Jagiellonia Białystok | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Piast Gliwice | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| GKS Katowice | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| Zagłębie Lubin | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Korona Kielce | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Wisła Krakau | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Motor Lublin | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Wisła Płock | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||
| Raków Częstochowa | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 5 | ||||
| KS Cracovia | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 6 | ||||
| Śląsk Wrocław | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 9 | |||||
| Widzew Lodz | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 15 | ||||||
| Radomiak Radom | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 18 | 20 | 18 | ||||||
| Wieczysta Krakow | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 44 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | Wisła Krakau | KS Cracovia | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Fri 6 Nov | Motor Lublin | Wisła Płock | 48% | 26% | 27% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Górnik Zabrze | Wieczysta Krakow | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Widzew Lodz | Pogoń Stettin | 35% | 26% | 38% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Śląsk Wrocław | Piast Gliwice | 39% | 26% | 34% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Korona Kielce | Radomiak Radom | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Jagiellonia Białystok | GKS Katowice | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Legia Warschau | Raków Częstochowa | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Lech Posen | Zagłębie Lubin | 61% | 23% | 16% |