Portugal
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes FC Porto the likeliest champion, at 50.1%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 84 | 50.1% |
| 2 | Benfica Lissabon | 83 | 35.9% |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 79 | 14.0% |
| 4 | Sporting Braga | 63 | |
| 5 | CD Santa Clara | 55 | |
| 6 | FC Arouca | 54 | |
| 7 | Academico Viseu | 49 | |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 46 | |
| 9 | FC Moreirense | 45 | |
| 10 | Vitória Guimarães | 44 | |
| 11 | FC Famalicão | 42 | |
| 12 | Alverca | 37 | |
| 13 | FC Rio Ave | 34 | |
| 14 | Casa Pia AC | 33 | |
| 15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | |
| 16 | Marítimo Funchal | 31 | |
| 17 | Nacional Funchal | 28 | |
| 18 | GD Estoril Praia | 26 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 50 | 33 | 17 | |||||||||||||||
| Benfica Lissabon | 36 | 40 | 24 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| Sporting CP | 14 | 27 | 57 | 2 | ||||||||||||||
| Sporting Braga | 2 | 64 | 22 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| CD Santa Clara | 15 | 33 | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| FC Arouca | 14 | 26 | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Academico Viseu | 3 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 19 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Gil Vicente | 1 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| FC Moreirense | 3 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
| Vitória Guimarães | 1 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| FC Famalicão | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 19 | 20 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Alverca | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||||
| FC Rio Ave | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 7 | ||||||
| Casa Pia AC | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 7 | |||||||
| Estrela Amadora | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 19 | 16 | 10 | 5 | |||||||
| Marítimo Funchal | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 14 | ||||||||
| Nacional Funchal | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 25 | 22 | |||||||||
| GD Estoril Praia | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 21 | 44 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | FC Famalicão | FC Arouca | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Sporting CP | FC Moreirense | 80% | 16% | 4% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Nacional Funchal | Academico Viseu | 31% | 31% | 38% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Alverca | Casa Pia AC | 41% | 31% | 28% |
| Sun 8 Nov | CD Santa Clara | Gil Vicente | 44% | 30% | 26% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Vitória Guimarães | FC Porto | 15% | 26% | 59% |
| Sun 8 Nov | FC Rio Ave | Sporting Braga | 15% | 26% | 59% |
| Sun 8 Nov | GD Estoril Praia | Marítimo Funchal | 46% | 30% | 24% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Estrela Amadora | Benfica Lissabon | 5% | 18% | 78% |