Portugal

One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes FC Porto the likeliest champion, at 50.1%.

Predicted final table

Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.

Predicted final table for Portugal
#	Club	Points	Title
1	FC Porto	83	50.1%
2	Sporting CP	81	29.2%
3	Benfica Lissabon	79	20.6%
4	Sporting Braga	65	0.1%
5	CD Santa Clara	51
6	FC Arouca	48
7	Gil Vicente	43
8	FC Famalicão	42
9	Academico Viseu	42
10	Vitória Guimarães	41
11	FC Moreirense	40
12	Alverca	38
13	Estrela Amadora	35
14	FC Rio Ave	35
15	Marítimo Funchal	33
16	Casa Pia AC	31
17	GD Estoril Praia	28
18	Nacional Funchal	24

Where each club finishes

Probability of each finishing position, Portugal
Club	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18
FC Porto	50	31	18	1
Sporting CP	29	37	32	1
Benfica Lissabon	21	31	45	4
Sporting Braga		1	5	87	6	1
CD Santa Clara				4	43	24	12	8	4	2	1	1
FC Arouca				2	25	27	16	13	5	5	3	1	2	1
Gil Vicente					8	13	13	14	14	11	9	6	4	2	2	1	1
FC Famalicão				1	5	9	14	12	12	13	10	9	6	5	3	2	1
Academico Viseu					4	8	13	14	13	13	11	9	6	5	2	2
Vitória Guimarães					3	7	10	12	11	12	11	10	9	7	5	2	1
FC Moreirense					3	5	10	8	12	12	12	10	9	8	7	3	2
Alverca					1	4	6	8	12	10	13	11	12	10	8	4	2	1
Estrela Amadora						1	3	5	7	7	9	11	13	14	12	8	7	2
FC Rio Ave					1	1	3	3	5	7	9	13	12	14	12	10	8	2
Marítimo Funchal							1	2	3	4	7	10	11	12	16	18	10	7
Casa Pia AC									1	3	4	5	7	12	15	20	18	14
GD Estoril Praia									1	1	2	3	6	7	12	19	27	22
Nacional Funchal												1	1	4	6	12	24	52

Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.

Fixtures

Upcoming fixtures in Portugal with win, draw and loss probabilities
Date	Home	Away	Home win	Draw	Away win
Mon 19 Oct	Sporting Braga	Gil Vicente	70%	22%	8%