Russia
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Zenit the likeliest champion, at 85.9%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit | 70 | 85.9% |
| 2 | Dynamo Moskau | 59 | 5.1% |
| 3 | Spartak Moskau | 58 | 2.6% |
| 4 | FK Krasnodar | 58 | 3.6% |
| 5 | ZSKA Moskau | 57 | 2.8% |
| 6 | FK Rostow | 43 | |
| 7 | Lokomotive Moskau | 41 | |
| 8 | Baltika | 40 | |
| 9 | Rubin Kasan | 40 | |
| 10 | FK Orenburg | 37 | |
| 11 | Krylja Sowetow Samara | 36 | |
| 12 | Akhmat Grozny | 32 | |
| 13 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 30 | |
| 14 | Akron Togliatti | 30 | |
| 15 | Rodina Moscow | 30 | |
| 16 | F. Voronezh | 22 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zenit | 86 | 10 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Dynamo Moskau | 5 | 26 | 24 | 26 | 18 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Spartak Moskau | 3 | 25 | 26 | 24 | 20 | 2 | ||||||||||
| FK Krasnodar | 4 | 22 | 23 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| ZSKA Moskau | 3 | 17 | 25 | 23 | 29 | 4 | ||||||||||
| FK Rostow | 1 | 4 | 30 | 23 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||||
| Lokomotive Moskau | 3 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Baltika | 2 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 15 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Rubin Kasan | 1 | 2 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| FK Orenburg | 7 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||||||
| Krylja Sowetow Samara | 4 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 16 | 15 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 3 | ||||||
| Akhmat Grozny | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 4 | |||||
| Dynamo Makhachkala | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 24 | 22 | 6 | ||||||
| Akron Togliatti | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 5 | ||||||
| Rodina Moscow | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 19 | 22 | 9 | |||||
| F. Voronezh | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 75 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | Lokomotive Moskau | Rubin Kasan | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| Sat 7 Nov | F. Voronezh | Dynamo Moskau | 14% | 26% | 59% |
| Sat 7 Nov | FK Krasnodar | ZSKA Moskau | 48% | 29% | 23% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Akhmat Grozny | Rodina Moscow | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Baltika | Dynamo Makhachkala | 50% | 29% | 21% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Spartak Moskau | Akron Togliatti | 68% | 23% | 10% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Zenit | FK Rostow | 70% | 21% | 8% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Krylja Sowetow Samara | FK Orenburg | 44% | 30% | 26% |