San Marino
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes AC Virtus the likeliest champion, at 72.8%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AC Virtus | 36 | 72.8% |
| 2 | SP Tre Fiori | 32 | 6.8% |
| 3 | SP Tre Penne | 32 | 10.9% |
| 4 | SS Folgore/Falciano | 31 | 8.1% |
| 5 | SP La Fiorita | 29 | 0.7% |
| 6 | SS Cosmos | 27 | 0.7% |
| 7 | Domagnano | 17 | |
| 8 | Libertas | 17 | |
| 9 | Fiorentino | 16 | |
| 10 | San Giovanni | 13 | |
| 11 | Juvenes/Dogana | 12 | |
| 12 | Pennarossa | 11 | |
| 13 | Murata | 11 | |
| 14 | San Marino Academy U22 | 9 | |
| 15 | Cailungo | 8 | |
| 16 | Faetano | 7 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Virtus | 73 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||||||||||
| SP Tre Fiori | 7 | 28 | 27 | 21 | 12 | 5 | ||||||||||
| SP Tre Penne | 11 | 30 | 28 | 18 | 10 | 3 | ||||||||||
| SS Folgore/Falciano | 8 | 17 | 22 | 25 | 16 | 12 | ||||||||||
| SP La Fiorita | 1 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 34 | 31 | ||||||||||
| SS Cosmos | 1 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 26 | 48 | 1 | |||||||||
| Domagnano | 1 | 34 | 25 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 2 | ||||||||
| Libertas | 29 | 27 | 20 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Fiorentino | 26 | 25 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| San Giovanni | 6 | 10 | 16 | 18 | 22 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 2 | |||||||
| Juvenes/Dogana | 3 | 7 | 14 | 18 | 19 | 13 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 1 | ||||||
| Pennarossa | 1 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 24 | 17 | 11 | 5 | |||||||
| Murata | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 20 | 14 | 14 | 8 | 6 | ||||||
| San Marino Academy U22 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 21 | 22 | 17 | ||||||
| Cailungo | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 22 | 27 | 25 | |||||||||
| Faetano | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 26 | 46 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7 Nov | Juvenes/Dogana | Pennarossa | 47% | 32% | 21% |
| Sat 7 Nov | SP La Fiorita | SS Cosmos | 66% | 25% | 9% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Faetano | Domagnano | 16% | 30% | 54% |
| Sat 7 Nov | SS Folgore/Falciano | AC Virtus | 14% | 29% | 57% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Fiorentino | Libertas | 33% | 34% | 33% |
| Sun 8 Nov | SP Tre Penne | Murata | 85% | 13% | 2% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Cailungo | SP Tre Fiori | 1% | 8% | 91% |
| Sun 8 Nov | San Marino Academy U22 | San Giovanni | 20% | 32% | 48% |