San Marino
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes SP Tre Penne the likeliest champion, at 55.3%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SP Tre Penne | 21 | 55.3% |
| 2 | AC Virtus | 20 | 21.7% |
| 3 | SS Folgore/Falciano | 18 | 11.9% |
| 4 | SP Tre Fiori | 18 | 11.1% |
| 5 | SP La Fiorita | 16 | |
| 6 | SS Cosmos | 14 | |
| 7 | Domagnano | 10 | |
| 8 | Libertas | 10 | |
| 9 | Fiorentino | 10 | |
| 10 | Juvenes/Dogana | 8 | |
| 11 | San Giovanni | 8 | |
| 12 | Pennarossa | 7 | |
| 13 | Faetano | 5 | |
| 14 | San Marino Academy U22 | 5 | |
| 15 | Murata | 4 | |
| 16 | Cailungo | 4 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP Tre Penne | 55 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 3 | |||||||||||
| AC Virtus | 22 | 42 | 19 | 10 | 7 | 1 | ||||||||||
| SS Folgore/Falciano | 12 | 18 | 25 | 24 | 17 | 3 | ||||||||||
| SP Tre Fiori | 11 | 18 | 31 | 23 | 14 | 2 | ||||||||||
| SP La Fiorita | 1 | 9 | 29 | 38 | 19 | 3 | ||||||||||
| SS Cosmos | 2 | 6 | 17 | 48 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 2 | ||||||||
| Domagnano | 1 | 9 | 28 | 27 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
| Libertas | 1 | 4 | 18 | 19 | 21 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 2 | |||||||
| Fiorentino | 2 | 10 | 21 | 20 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Juvenes/Dogana | 2 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||||||
| San Giovanni | 1 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 19 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 3 | |||||
| Pennarossa | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 20 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 9 | ||||||
| Faetano | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 33 | ||||||
| San Marino Academy U22 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 18 | 13 | 17 | 21 | ||||||||
| Murata | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 22 | 29 | 22 | ||||||||
| Cailungo | 1 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 19 | 28 | 23 | 11 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9 Oct | Pennarossa | SS Folgore/Falciano | 6% | 20% | 74% |
| Fri 9 Oct | Cailungo | Libertas | 8% | 22% | 70% |
| Fri 9 Oct | SP La Fiorita | Murata | 87% | 11% | 2% |
| Sat 10 Oct | San Giovanni | SP Tre Fiori | 5% | 18% | 78% |
| Sat 10 Oct | Faetano | Fiorentino | 18% | 29% | 54% |
| Sun 11 Oct | AC Virtus | San Marino Academy U22 | 88% | 11% | 1% |
| Sun 11 Oct | Domagnano | SP Tre Penne | 5% | 19% | 76% |
| Sun 11 Oct | SS Cosmos | Juvenes/Dogana | 57% | 28% | 16% |