Scotland

One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Celtic Glasgow the likeliest champion, at 75.7%.

Predicted final table

Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.

Predicted final table for Scotland
#	Club	Points	Title
1	Celtic Glasgow	74	75.7%
2	Glasgow Rangers	68	22.4%
3	Heart of Midlothian	59	1.9%
4	Falkirk	47
5	Dundee United	44
6	Motherwell FC	43
7	Dundee FC	43
8	Hibernian FC	41
9	FC St. Mirren	40
10	FC Aberdeen	37
11	St. Johnstone	34
12	FC Kilmarnock	31

Where each club finishes

Probability of each finishing position, Scotland
Club	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Celtic Glasgow	76	22	2
Glasgow Rangers	22	65	12	1
Heart of Midlothian	2	13	73	10	2	1
Falkirk			6	30	21	17	9	7	5	3	1
Dundee United			2	20	20	17	13	11	9	6	2	1
Motherwell FC			1	13	15	16	16	14	11	7	5	2
Dundee FC			2	13	17	17	16	14	11	6	4	1
Hibernian FC			1	6	11	13	16	14	15	12	8	4
FC St. Mirren				5	8	11	14	16	14	14	12	6
FC Aberdeen				2	4	6	9	13	15	22	19	10
St. Johnstone					2	3	4	8	13	17	29	24
FC Kilmarnock						1	4	4	7	13	20	51

Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.

Fixtures

Upcoming fixtures in Scotland with win, draw and loss probabilities
Date	Home	Away	Home win	Draw	Away win
Sat 7 Nov	FC St. Mirren	Glasgow Rangers	17%	24%	60%
Sat 7 Nov	Dundee United	Motherwell FC	43%	27%	30%
Sat 7 Nov	FC Aberdeen	Hibernian FC	36%	27%	37%
Sat 7 Nov	St. Johnstone	Dundee FC	39%	27%	34%
Sun 8 Nov	Celtic Glasgow	FC Kilmarnock	80%	15%	5%
Sun 8 Nov	Heart of Midlothian	Falkirk	64%	22%	14%