Serbia

One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Roter Stern Belgrad the likeliest champion, at 98.2%.

Predicted final table

Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.

Predicted final table for Serbia
#	Club	Points	Title
1	Roter Stern Belgrad	64	98.2%
2	FK Vojvodina	50	1.8%
3	Radnicki 1923	39
4	Partizan Belgrad	36
5	IMT Novi Beograd	36
6	FK Mladost Lučani	36
7	Zeleznicar Pancevo	36
8	FK Novi Pazar	34
9	Radnik Surdulica	33
10	FK Čukarički	33
11	OFK Beograd	29
12	Radnički Niš	27
13	FK Mačva Šabac	21
14	Zemun	17

Where each club finishes

Probability of each finishing position, Serbia
Club	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Roter Stern Belgrad	98	2
FK Vojvodina	2	86	9	2	1
Radnicki 1923		4	27	22	15	9	8	7	5	2	1	1
Partizan Belgrad		2	12	13	12	15	12	12	8	7	5	1
IMT Novi Beograd		2	13	15	15	12	11	11	9	7	4	1
FK Mladost Lučani		2	11	14	13	13	15	10	9	8	4	2
Zeleznicar Pancevo		1	15	15	14	12	13	12	7	6	4	1
FK Novi Pazar			5	7	11	13	13	12	13	12	9	5	1
Radnik Surdulica			5	7	8	10	9	12	16	14	14	7	1
FK Čukarički		1	4	5	8	10	11	15	14	13	12	8	1
OFK Beograd				1	2	4	5	6	12	16	24	22	7	1
Radnički Niš					1	2	3	4	7	13	19	36	12	2
FK Mačva Šabac									1	2	4	12	56	24
Zemun										1	1	4	22	73

Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.

Fixtures

Upcoming fixtures in Serbia with win, draw and loss probabilities
Date	Home	Away	Home win	Draw	Away win
Sat 10 Oct	IMT Novi Beograd	Radnik Surdulica	46%	31%	22%
Sat 10 Oct	Radnicki 1923	Roter Stern Belgrad	13%	27%	60%
Sat 10 Oct	FK Čukarički	FK Mačva Šabac	62%	26%	12%
Sun 11 Oct	Radnički Niš	FK Vojvodina	22%	31%	46%
Sun 11 Oct	Partizan Belgrad	FK Novi Pazar	55%	29%	16%
Sun 11 Oct	Zemun	Zeleznicar Pancevo	21%	31%	48%
Mon 12 Oct	FK Mladost Lučani	OFK Beograd	43%	32%	25%