Serbia

One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Roter Stern Belgrad the likeliest champion, at 99.5%.

Predicted final table

Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.

Predicted final table for Serbia
#	Club	Points	Title
1	Roter Stern Belgrad	68	99.5%
2	FK Vojvodina	54	0.5%
3	Zeleznicar Pancevo	44
4	Radnicki 1923	40
5	Partizan Belgrad	38
6	IMT Novi Beograd	38
7	FK Čukarički	35
8	Radnik Surdulica	34
9	FK Mladost Lučani	33
10	FK Novi Pazar	32
11	OFK Beograd	26
12	Radnički Niš	21
13	FK Mačva Šabac	18
14	Zemun	15

Where each club finishes

Probability of each finishing position, Serbia
Club	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Roter Stern Belgrad	100	1
FK Vojvodina	1	95	4
Zeleznicar Pancevo		4	60	21	9	4	1	1
Radnicki 1923			16	24	24	16	10	7	3	1
Partizan Belgrad			9	19	19	19	13	11	6	4
IMT Novi Beograd			9	21	19	19	14	9	5	4
FK Čukarički			2	7	11	18	21	16	13	10	3
Radnik Surdulica				4	9	12	17	20	19	14	4	1
FK Mladost Lučani			1	2	5	6	12	19	24	21	9	1
FK Novi Pazar				2	4	5	11	16	23	28	9	2
OFK Beograd							1	2	6	16	53	16	4	1
Radnički Niš										3	16	48	27	7
FK Mačva Šabac											4	25	50	21
Zemun											1	8	20	71

Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.

Fixtures

Upcoming fixtures in Serbia with win, draw and loss probabilities
Date	Home	Away	Home win	Draw	Away win
Sat 7 Nov	Zemun	IMT Novi Beograd	19%	30%	51%
Sat 7 Nov	Zeleznicar Pancevo	Radnicki 1923	45%	31%	24%
Sat 7 Nov	FK Čukarički	Radnički Niš	51%	30%	19%
Sun 8 Nov	FK Novi Pazar	FK Mladost Lučani	42%	32%	26%
Sun 8 Nov	Radnik Surdulica	OFK Beograd	38%	32%	30%
Sun 8 Nov	FK Vojvodina	Roter Stern Belgrad	18%	30%	52%
Sun 8 Nov	Partizan Belgrad	FK Mačva Šabac	77%	18%	5%