Slovakia
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Dunajská Streda the likeliest champion, at 94.2%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dunajská Streda | 54 | 94.2% |
| 2 | Slovan Bratislava | 46 | 5.5% |
| 3 | MŠK Žilina | 40 | 0.3% |
| 4 | Spartak Trnava | 37 | |
| 5 | FC Košice | 30 | |
| 6 | FO ŽP Podbrezová | 29 | |
| 7 | Michalovce | 25 | |
| 8 | Banska Bystrica | 24 | |
| 9 | MFK Ružomberok | 23 | |
| 10 | Komarno | 20 | |
| 11 | MFK Skalica | 19 | |
| 12 | AS Trenčín | 18 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunajská Streda | 94 | 6 | ||||||||||
| Slovan Bratislava | 6 | 77 | 15 | 2 | ||||||||
| MŠK Žilina | 13 | 54 | 29 | 4 | ||||||||
| Spartak Trnava | 4 | 28 | 53 | 11 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| FC Košice | 1 | 8 | 44 | 25 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| FO ŽP Podbrezová | 1 | 6 | 29 | 35 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Michalovce | 1 | 5 | 13 | 24 | 21 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 2 | |||
| Banska Bystrica | 5 | 13 | 22 | 22 | 15 | 12 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| MFK Ružomberok | 2 | 7 | 13 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 12 | 9 | ||||
| Komarno | 2 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 19 | 23 | 21 | |||||
| MFK Skalica | 2 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 19 | 24 | 25 | |||||
| AS Trenčín | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 25 | 40 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7 Nov | MFK Skalica | MŠK Žilina | 23% | 20% | 57% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Dunajská Streda | FC Košice | 69% | 17% | 13% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Banska Bystrica | Spartak Trnava | 22% | 20% | 58% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Slovan Bratislava | AS Trenčín | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| Sun 8 Nov | FO ŽP Podbrezová | MFK Ružomberok | 49% | 22% | 29% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Komarno | Michalovce | 38% | 22% | 40% |