Slovenia
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes FC Koper the likeliest champion, at 62.1%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Koper | 71 | 62.1% |
| 2 | NK Maribor | 64 | 12.1% |
| 3 | NK Celje | 64 | 11.9% |
| 4 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 62 | 9.9% |
| 5 | NK Bravo | 59 | 4.0% |
| 6 | Aluminij | 40 | |
| 7 | Nafta | 40 | |
| 8 | NŠ Mura | 37 | |
| 9 | Grosuplje | 36 | |
| 10 | Radomlje | 33 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Koper | 62 | 20 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||||
| NK Maribor | 12 | 26 | 25 | 22 | 14 | 1 | ||||
| NK Celje | 12 | 25 | 26 | 23 | 14 | |||||
| Olimpija Ljubljana | 10 | 19 | 23 | 24 | 22 | 1 | ||||
| NK Bravo | 4 | 10 | 15 | 25 | 43 | 3 | ||||
| Aluminij | 2 | 34 | 26 | 18 | 13 | 6 | ||||
| Nafta | 2 | 31 | 30 | 18 | 13 | 7 | ||||
| NŠ Mura | 1 | 16 | 18 | 26 | 24 | 15 | ||||
| Grosuplje | 11 | 17 | 24 | 27 | 21 | |||||
| Radomlje | 3 | 9 | 15 | 23 | 51 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | Nafta | Olimpija Ljubljana | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| Sat 7 Nov | NK Bravo | NK Maribor | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Sat 7 Nov | FC Koper | NŠ Mura | 71% | 19% | 9% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Grosuplje | Aluminij | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Radomlje | NK Celje | 20% | 25% | 55% |