Slovenia
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes NK Maribor the likeliest champion, at 35.0%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NK Maribor | 65 | 35.0% |
| 2 | FC Koper | 64 | 29.6% |
| 3 | NK Bravo | 62 | 17.8% |
| 4 | NK Celje | 59 | 10.4% |
| 5 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 58 | 7.2% |
| 6 | Aluminij | 40 | |
| 7 | Nafta | 39 | |
| 8 | Grosuplje | 37 | |
| 9 | NŠ Mura | 37 | |
| 10 | Radomlje | 33 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Maribor | 35 | 26 | 18 | 14 | 6 | |||||
| FC Koper | 30 | 27 | 21 | 14 | 8 | 1 | ||||
| NK Bravo | 18 | 22 | 24 | 20 | 14 | 2 | 1 | |||
| NK Celje | 10 | 14 | 18 | 24 | 29 | 3 | ||||
| Olimpija Ljubljana | 7 | 11 | 18 | 26 | 33 | 5 | 1 | |||
| Aluminij | 1 | 4 | 31 | 26 | 17 | 13 | 8 | |||
| Nafta | 1 | 1 | 23 | 24 | 22 | 19 | 10 | |||
| Grosuplje | 2 | 17 | 20 | 23 | 24 | 14 | ||||
| NŠ Mura | 1 | 14 | 20 | 22 | 23 | 21 | ||||
| Radomlje | 5 | 9 | 16 | 22 | 48 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10 Oct | NK Celje | Aluminij | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| Sat 10 Oct | Olimpija Ljubljana | NŠ Mura | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| Sat 10 Oct | Radomlje | FC Koper | 25% | 22% | 53% |
| Sun 11 Oct | Grosuplje | NK Maribor | 25% | 23% | 52% |
| Sun 11 Oct | Nafta | NK Bravo | 24% | 22% | 53% |