Spain
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes FC Barcelona the likeliest champion, at 77.0%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 92 | 77.0% |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 85 | 21.1% |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 75 | 1.7% |
| 4 | Betis Sevilla | 69 | 0.2% |
| 5 | Athletic Bilbao | 54 | |
| 6 | FC Sevilla | 53 | |
| 7 | Real Sociedad | 53 | |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 52 | |
| 9 | FC Villarreal | 51 | |
| 10 | Deportivo Alavés | 49 | |
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 47 | |
| 12 | CA Osasuna | 46 | |
| 13 | FC Getafe | 45 | |
| 14 | FC Valencia | 44 | |
| 15 | UD Levante | 44 | |
| 16 | Espanyol Barcelona | 43 | |
| 17 | Deportivo La Coruña | 41 | |
| 18 | FC Elche | 40 | |
| 19 | Racing Santander | 35 | |
| 20 | FC Málaga | 32 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona | 77 | 21 | 2 | |||||||||||||||||
| Real Madrid | 21 | 65 | 12 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Atlético Madrid | 2 | 11 | 62 | 22 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| Betis Sevilla | 3 | 22 | 56 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 5 | 20 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| FC Sevilla | 1 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Real Sociedad | 4 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| FC Villarreal | 2 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Deportivo Alavés | 1 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Celta Vigo | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| CA Osasuna | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| FC Getafe | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 1 | |||
| FC Valencia | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 4 | ||||
| UD Levante | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| Espanyol Barcelona | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 3 | ||||
| Deportivo La Coruña | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 4 | ||||
| FC Elche | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 8 | |||||
| Racing Santander | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 25 | 26 | ||||||||
| FC Málaga | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 23 | 48 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9 Oct | FC Málaga | Espanyol Barcelona | 39% | 27% | 35% |
| Sat 10 Oct | Rayo Vallecano | Athletic Bilbao | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Sat 10 Oct | FC Barcelona | FC Getafe | 82% | 14% | 4% |
| Sat 10 Oct | Deportivo Alavés | Atlético Madrid | 26% | 26% | 49% |
| Sat 10 Oct | Real Madrid | FC Villarreal | 77% | 16% | 7% |
| Sun 11 Oct | FC Elche | Celta Vigo | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Sun 11 Oct | Racing Santander | FC Valencia | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Sun 11 Oct | Betis Sevilla | CA Osasuna | 64% | 22% | 14% |
| Sun 11 Oct | Real Sociedad | Deportivo La Coruña | 62% | 23% | 16% |
| Mon 12 Oct | UD Levante | FC Sevilla | 45% | 26% | 29% |