Spain
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes FC Barcelona the likeliest champion, at 55.5%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Barcelona | 96 | 55.5% |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 95 | 40.8% |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 84 | 3.3% |
| 4 | Betis Sevilla | 79 | 0.4% |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 59 | |
| 6 | FC Sevilla | 58 | |
| 7 | Athletic Bilbao | 56 | |
| 8 | FC Villarreal | 53 | |
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 51 | |
| 10 | Celta Vigo | 50 | |
| 11 | Deportivo Alavés | 48 | |
| 12 | FC Getafe | 46 | |
| 13 | FC Valencia | 45 | |
| 14 | CA Osasuna | 45 | |
| 15 | UD Levante | 45 | |
| 16 | Espanyol Barcelona | 44 | |
| 17 | FC Elche | 43 | |
| 18 | Deportivo La Coruña | 43 | |
| 19 | Racing Santander | 37 | |
| 20 | FC Málaga | 32 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona | 56 | 38 | 6 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Real Madrid | 41 | 48 | 9 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Atlético Madrid | 3 | 11 | 56 | 29 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| Betis Sevilla | 3 | 28 | 66 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Real Sociedad | 1 | 29 | 22 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| FC Sevilla | 1 | 27 | 21 | 17 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 20 | 19 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||||
| FC Villarreal | 8 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Rayo Vallecano | 5 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Celta Vigo | 3 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |||||
| Deportivo Alavés | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| FC Getafe | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| FC Valencia | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 1 | |||||
| CA Osasuna | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| UD Levante | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| Espanyol Barcelona | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 2 | |||||
| FC Elche | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 3 | |||||
| Deportivo La Coruña | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 3 | |||||
| Racing Santander | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 28 | 24 | ||||||||
| FC Málaga | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 59 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov | FC Sevilla | Deportivo Alavés | 52% | 25% | 22% |
| Sat 7 Nov | CA Osasuna | Athletic Bilbao | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Espanyol Barcelona | Deportivo La Coruña | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Sat 7 Nov | FC Valencia | Real Madrid | 14% | 22% | 64% |
| Sat 7 Nov | FC Málaga | Racing Santander | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Real Sociedad | Rayo Vallecano | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Celta Vigo | UD Levante | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Atlético Madrid | FC Barcelona | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Sun 8 Nov | FC Villarreal | FC Getafe | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Sun 8 Nov | FC Elche | Betis Sevilla | 25% | 26% | 49% |