Sweden
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes IK Sirius the likeliest champion, at 56.0%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IK Sirius | 62 | 56.0% |
| 2 | Hammarby IF | 60 | 39.9% |
| 3 | Djurgårdens IF | 57 | 3.8% |
| 4 | BK Häcken | 55 | 0.3% |
| 5 | IF Elfsborg | 50 | |
| 6 | Västerås SK | 48 | |
| 7 | Malmö FF | 48 | |
| 8 | AIK Stockholm | 44 | |
| 9 | IFK Göteborg | 41 | |
| 10 | GAIS Göteborg | 41 | |
| 11 | IF Brommapojkarna | 38 | |
| 12 | Mjällby AIF | 32 | |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 27 | |
| 14 | Örgryte IS | 23 | |
| 15 | Degerfors IF | 23 | |
| 16 | Halmstads BK | 20 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IK Sirius | 56 | 29 | 14 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Hammarby IF | 40 | 48 | 12 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Djurgårdens IF | 4 | 20 | 57 | 19 | ||||||||||||
| BK Häcken | 3 | 17 | 70 | 9 | 1 | |||||||||||
| IF Elfsborg | 10 | 62 | 22 | 6 | ||||||||||||
| Västerås SK | 14 | 31 | 43 | 10 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Malmö FF | 15 | 42 | 32 | 10 | 2 | |||||||||||
| AIK Stockholm | 4 | 12 | 54 | 22 | 8 | 1 | ||||||||||
| IFK Göteborg | 3 | 9 | 33 | 45 | 10 | |||||||||||
| GAIS Göteborg | 1 | 4 | 16 | 39 | 33 | 7 | ||||||||||
| IF Brommapojkarna | 3 | 14 | 79 | 3 | ||||||||||||
| Mjällby AIF | 3 | 91 | 6 | |||||||||||||
| Kalmar FF | 6 | 79 | 14 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Örgryte IS | 8 | 29 | 43 | 20 | ||||||||||||
| Degerfors IF | 7 | 51 | 33 | 9 | ||||||||||||
| Halmstads BK | 6 | 23 | 70 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov | IK Sirius | Halmstads BK | 63% | 21% | 15% |
| Fri 6 Nov | Hammarby IF | IF Elfsborg | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Degerfors IF | GAIS Göteborg | 24% | 24% | 51% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Örgryte IS | Västerås SK | 29% | 25% | 46% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Halmstads BK | Djurgårdens IF | 14% | 20% | 66% |
| Sun 8 Nov | IF Brommapojkarna | Mjällby AIF | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Sun 8 Nov | AIK Stockholm | BK Häcken | 36% | 25% | 38% |
| Sun 8 Nov | IFK Göteborg | Malmö FF | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Kalmar FF | IK Sirius | 21% | 23% | 56% |