Sweden

One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes IK Sirius the likeliest champion, at 84.0%.

Predicted final table

Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.

Predicted final table for Sweden
#	Club	Points	Title
1	IK Sirius	64	84.0%
2	Hammarby IF	57	10.0%
3	Djurgårdens IF	56	6.0%
4	IF Elfsborg	50
5	BK Häcken	48
6	AIK Stockholm	46
7	Västerås SK	45
8	Malmö FF	45
9	IFK Göteborg	42
10	GAIS Göteborg	42
11	IF Brommapojkarna	36
12	Mjällby AIF	35
13	Kalmar FF	28
14	Degerfors IF	27
15	Örgryte IS	23
16	Halmstads BK	21

Where each club finishes

Probability of each finishing position, Sweden
Club	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
IK Sirius	84	14	2
Hammarby IF	10	49	30	8	2	1
Djurgårdens IF	6	35	45	9	4	1	1
IF Elfsborg		2	11	33	23	14	10	5	2	1
BK Häcken		1	7	25	24	18	13	7	3	1	1
AIK Stockholm			1	8	14	19	20	18	12	6	2
Västerås SK			2	7	12	17	19	18	14	8	1	1
Malmö FF			1	8	13	18	18	19	13	8	3
IFK Göteborg				2	4	6	8	14	24	28	10	3
GAIS Göteborg				1	4	7	10	17	24	24	10	3
IF Brommapojkarna								2	4	12	37	37	6	1
Mjällby AIF								1	3	11	32	42	9	2
Kalmar FF											3	10	48	30	7	2
Degerfors IF											2	3	30	48	14	3
Örgryte IS													5	13	49	32
Halmstads BK													2	6	29	63

Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.

Fixtures

Upcoming fixtures in Sweden with win, draw and loss probabilities
Date	Home	Away	Home win	Draw	Away win
Fri 9 Oct	IFK Göteborg	Västerås SK	49%	24%	27%
Sat 10 Oct	AIK Stockholm	IF Brommapojkarna	56%	23%	21%
Sat 10 Oct	GAIS Göteborg	IK Sirius	28%	25%	47%
Sat 10 Oct	Mjällby AIF	Degerfors IF	56%	23%	21%
Sun 11 Oct	Hammarby IF	Djurgårdens IF	38%	25%	37%
Sun 11 Oct	BK Häcken	Örgryte IS	60%	22%	18%
Mon 12 Oct	IF Elfsborg	Halmstads BK	61%	22%	18%
Mon 12 Oct	Malmö FF	Kalmar FF	53%	24%	23%