Switzerland
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes FC Lugano the likeliest champion, at 97.5%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 55 | 97.5% |
| 2 | Young Boys Bern | 43 | 2.3% |
| 3 | FC Sion | 38 | 0.1% |
| 4 | FC St. Gallen | 36 | 0.1% |
| 5 | FC Zürich | 32 | |
| 6 | Servette Genf | 31 | |
| 7 | FC Basel | 29 | |
| 8 | FC Thun | 26 | |
| 9 | FC Luzern | 26 | |
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 20 | |
| 11 | Grasshoppers Zürich | 18 | |
| 12 | FC Lausanne-Sport | 15 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lugano | 98 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Young Boys Bern | 2 | 70 | 20 | 7 | 1 | |||||||
| FC Sion | 19 | 44 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 1 | ||||||
| FC St. Gallen | 7 | 24 | 33 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||||
| FC Zürich | 1 | 7 | 14 | 24 | 24 | 18 | 9 | 4 | ||||
| Servette Genf | 1 | 4 | 15 | 25 | 25 | 16 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| FC Basel | 2 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 24 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 1 | |||
| FC Thun | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 26 | 25 | 13 | 4 | ||||
| FC Luzern | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 26 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 1 | |||
| FC Vaduz | 1 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 37 | 28 | 9 | |||||
| Grasshoppers Zürich | 2 | 8 | 22 | 41 | 27 | |||||||
| FC Lausanne-Sport | 2 | 12 | 24 | 63 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 7 Nov | FC Vaduz | FC Sion | 23% | 24% | 53% |
| Sat 7 Nov | Grasshoppers Zürich | FC Lausanne-Sport | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Sat 7 Nov | FC Luzern | Young Boys Bern | 24% | 24% | 52% |
| Sun 8 Nov | Servette Genf | FC Zürich | 51% | 24% | 24% |
| Sun 8 Nov | FC St. Gallen | FC Lugano | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| Sun 8 Nov | FC Thun | FC Basel | 38% | 26% | 37% |