Switzerland
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes FC Lugano the likeliest champion, at 85.2%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 50 | 85.2% |
| 2 | Young Boys Bern | 42 | 10.0% |
| 3 | FC Sion | 40 | 3.9% |
| 4 | FC St. Gallen | 34 | 0.6% |
| 5 | FC Basel | 33 | 0.2% |
| 6 | FC Thun | 29 | 0.1% |
| 7 | FC Luzern | 29 | |
| 8 | Servette Genf | 29 | |
| 9 | FC Zürich | 24 | |
| 10 | Grasshoppers Zürich | 19 | |
| 11 | FC Vaduz | 19 | |
| 12 | FC Lausanne-Sport | 18 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lugano | 85 | 12 | 3 | |||||||||
| Young Boys Bern | 10 | 49 | 27 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| FC Sion | 4 | 29 | 40 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||||
| FC St. Gallen | 1 | 5 | 14 | 27 | 22 | 16 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |||
| FC Basel | 4 | 10 | 25 | 22 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| FC Thun | 1 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 21 | 14 | 6 | 3 | ||
| FC Luzern | 3 | 8 | 15 | 20 | 21 | 17 | 10 | 4 | 2 | |||
| Servette Genf | 1 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 21 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| FC Zürich | 3 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 28 | 18 | 9 | 4 | ||||
| Grasshoppers Zürich | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 30 | 35 | |||||
| FC Vaduz | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 23 | 25 | 25 | |||||
| FC Lausanne-Sport | 1 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 28 | 36 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
| Date | Home | Away | Home win | Draw | Away win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 10 Oct | FC Zürich | FC Thun | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Sat 10 Oct | FC Lugano | FC Luzern | 59% | 22% | 18% |
| Sat 10 Oct | Servette Genf | FC Sion | 37% | 25% | 38% |
| Sun 11 Oct | FC Vaduz | FC Basel | 26% | 24% | 50% |
| Sun 11 Oct | FC St. Gallen | FC Lausanne-Sport | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Sun 11 Oct | Grasshoppers Zürich | Young Boys Bern | 14% | 21% | 65% |