Ukraine

One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes Schachtar Donezk the likeliest champion, at 95.2%.

Predicted final table

Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.

Predicted final table for Ukraine
#	Club	Points	Title
1	Schachtar Donezk	80	95.2%
2	Dynamo Kiew	68	3.5%
3	Polissya Zhytomyr	65	1.3%
4	Metalist 1925	53
5	Sorja Luhansk	52
6	Karpaty Lviv	48
7	LNZ Cherkasy	47
8	Kolos Kovalivka	41
9	Kryvbas Kryvyj Rih	37
10	Bukovyna	35
11	NK Veres Rivne	30
12	Obolon	30
13	Epitsentr	28
14	Tschornomorez Odesa	26
15	Livyi Bereg	25
16	Kudrivka	23

Where each club finishes

Probability of each finishing position, Ukraine
Club	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Schachtar Donezk	95	4	1
Dynamo Kiew	4	61	32	3
Polissya Zhytomyr	1	34	57	6	1
Metalist 1925		1	5	35	29	17	8	3	2
Sorja Luhansk			4	30	28	19	13	4	2
Karpaty Lviv			1	13	19	25	25	11	4	2
LNZ Cherkasy			1	12	16	25	23	14	7	2	1
Kolos Kovalivka				1	4	8	17	34	20	9	5	1	1
Kryvbas Kryvyj Rih					1	3	7	16	26	20	11	6	4	3	2
Bukovyna						2	5	12	20	24	14	12	6	4	2	1
NK Veres Rivne							1	3	7	13	17	16	15	13	10	4
Obolon							1	2	7	12	18	16	16	13	11	5
Epitsentr								1	3	8	12	16	17	17	17	9
Tschornomorez Odesa									1	5	11	15	17	18	16	16
Livyi Bereg								1	1	4	9	11	15	17	21	20
Kudrivka										1	3	5	10	15	22	44

Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.

Fixtures

Upcoming fixtures in Ukraine with win, draw and loss probabilities
Date	Home	Away	Home win	Draw	Away win
Fri 6 Nov	Polissya Zhytomyr	NK Veres Rivne	70%	21%	9%
Fri 6 Nov	Obolon	Livyi Bereg	42%	29%	28%
Sat 7 Nov	Epitsentr	Kryvbas Kryvyj Rih	23%	28%	49%
Sat 7 Nov	Kudrivka	Tschornomorez Odesa	39%	30%	32%
Sat 7 Nov	Metalist 1925	Karpaty Lviv	40%	30%	31%
Sun 8 Nov	Sorja Luhansk	LNZ Cherkasy	41%	29%	29%
Sun 8 Nov	Bukovyna	Kolos Kovalivka	25%	29%	46%
Sun 8 Nov	Schachtar Donezk	Dynamo Kiew	58%	26%	16%