Wales

One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes The New Saints FC the likeliest champion, at 99.2%.

Predicted final table

Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.

Predicted final table for Wales
#	Club	Points	Title
1	The New Saints FC	88	99.2%
2	Connah's Quay	74	0.8%
3	Penybont FC	69
4	Barry	57
5	Caernarfon Town	55
6	Colwyn Bay FC	52
7	Cardiff Metropolitan	51
8	Airbus	41
9	Haverfordwest County	40
10	Cambrian United	39
11	Llandudno	39
12	Briton Ferry	36
13	Flint	33
14	Ammanford	27
15	Trefelin	23
16	Holywell	16

Where each club finishes

Probability of each finishing position, Wales
Club	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
The New Saints FC	99	1
Connah's Quay	1	76	22	1
Penybont FC		23	72	4	1
Barry			4	43	27	17	7	2
Caernarfon Town			1	34	30	21	12	2
Colwyn Bay FC			1	11	22	29	25	8	2	2
Cardiff Metropolitan				7	18	26	31	11	4	2	1
Airbus					1	3	10	26	20	15	14	8	2
Haverfordwest County					1	1	6	16	22	17	16	12	8	1
Cambrian United						1	4	11	16	18	21	14	11	3
Llandudno						1	4	16	20	19	17	14	7	1
Briton Ferry							1	5	9	15	17	24	21	6	1
Flint							1	2	5	11	13	21	31	13	4
Ammanford									1		2	5	14	49	26	3
Trefelin												1	6	24	58	11
Holywell													1	2	11	86

Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.

Fixtures

Upcoming fixtures in Wales with win, draw and loss probabilities
Date	Home	Away	Home win	Draw	Away win
Fri 6 Nov	Holywell	Airbus	40%	23%	37%
Fri 6 Nov	Penybont FC	Caernarfon Town	51%	22%	27%
Fri 6 Nov	Trefelin	Colwyn Bay FC	29%	22%	49%
Fri 6 Nov	Llandudno	The New Saints FC	3%	10%	86%
Fri 6 Nov	Cambrian United	Barry	26%	22%	52%
Fri 6 Nov	Connah's Quay	Flint	74%	16%	10%
Fri 6 Nov	Ammanford	Briton Ferry	36%	23%	42%
Fri 6 Nov	Haverfordwest County	Cardiff Metropolitan	38%	23%	39%