Wales
One thousand simulations of the rest of the season, played out from the current Elo ratings. The model makes The New Saints FC the likeliest champion, at 98.9%.
Predicted final table
Points is the average across simulations; Title is the share of them the club finishes top of.
| # | Club | Points | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints FC | 80 | 98.9% |
| 2 | Connah's Quay | 66 | 1.0% |
| 3 | Penybont FC | 62 | 0.1% |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town | 54 | |
| 5 | Barry | 53 | |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay FC | 48 | |
| 7 | Cardiff Metropolitan | 46 | |
| 8 | Cambrian United | 40 | |
| 9 | Airbus | 34 | |
| 10 | Haverfordwest County | 34 | |
| 11 | Llandudno | 34 | |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 33 | |
| 13 | Ammanford | 27 | |
| 14 | Flint | 27 | |
| 15 | Trefelin | 24 | |
| 16 | Holywell | 17 |
Where each club finishes
| Club | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New Saints FC | 99 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| Connah's Quay | 1 | 70 | 24 | 5 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Penybont FC | 24 | 53 | 16 | 6 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Caernarfon Town | 4 | 14 | 38 | 26 | 12 | 4 | 1 | |||||||||
| Barry | 1 | 7 | 28 | 34 | 20 | 7 | 2 | |||||||||
| Colwyn Bay FC | 3 | 7 | 18 | 32 | 28 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Cardiff Metropolitan | 5 | 13 | 26 | 34 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Cambrian United | 1 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 32 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Airbus | 1 | 3 | 11 | 20 | 21 | 19 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||||||
| Haverfordwest County | 1 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||||||
| Llandudno | 1 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 20 | 19 | 15 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||||||
| Briton Ferry | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 18 | 12 | 9 | 2 | ||||||
| Ammanford | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 20 | 25 | 22 | 4 | |||||||
| Flint | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 21 | 24 | 19 | 5 | |||||||
| Trefelin | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 24 | 38 | 10 | ||||||||
| Holywell | 2 | 4 | 14 | 80 |
Probability of each finishing position, in per cent. Blank is under 0.5%.
Fixtures
No fixtures left to simulate. The last one in this forecast was some time ago. The table above is the forecast as it stood then, and it will move again once the new season has matches on record.